As the Ice Retreats -- an Oil/Gas Future in the North Accelerates

Geopolitical Cooperation -- or Conflict over Huge New Oil/Gas Resources in the North

New Risks and Volatile Change

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June 2017

Time to Drill -- Or?

● Senate overwhelmingly passes Russia sanctions deal

In effect, action by the US Congress to continue/extend sanctions has the effect of blocking ExxonMobile-Rosneft Arctic drilling

Exxon and Rosneft offshore exploration partnership plans to invest as much as $500 billion in developing Russia's vast energy reserves in the Arctic and Black seas.

● Budget calls for opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling

● Trump Moves to Remove Russia Sanctions, Enabling Joint US/Russia Arctic Drilling

● June 8 / DC Law Firm's Clients and New Presidential Appointee

● Exxon-Rosnoft, Tillerson-Putin Timeline from the Business Insider

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Arctic Could Be Ice Free by 2040

Phenomenal Melt Season

Annual Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 1979-2016 with Area Graph

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May 2017

Why Care About Black Carbon?

Soot / 'Black Carbon' in the Arctic

Rex Tillerson speaks of 'how the Trump administration will approach the issue of climate change'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/arctic-is-changing-as-u-s-mulls-climate-policy-tillerson-says

https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/05/270813.htm

Tillerson’s appearance in Alaska at the Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting comes two days after the White House said Trump would postpone a decision over whether to pull out of the landmark Paris climate accord until after he meets world leaders at the Group of Seven summit later this month.

“We are currently reviewing several important policies, including how the Trump administration will approach the issue of climate change,” Tillerson said Thursday during his remarks to the Arctic Council, which also includes Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. “We’re going to work to make the right decision for the United States.”

Tillerson also called for vigilance in protecting the Arctic’s “fragile environment.” The U.S. will continue to be an active member of the council," he said. “The Arctic region has been facing unprecedented change and challenges.”

Initially (in their joint "Fairbanks Declaration" statement that accompanied the Council's meeting,) the U.S. objected to references to climate change, renewable energy and United Nations sustainability goals in an early draft of the joint statement, said Rene Soderman, senior adviser for Arctic cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. The council reworked the wording and convinced the U.S. to accept the changes.

“We were able to push the U.S. back as much as possible,” Soderman said.

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Dollars & the Arctic

● http://e360.yale.edu/features/how-big-money-in-politics-blocked-u-s-action-on-climate-change

Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic: Summary for Policy-makers

● https://www.greenpolicy360.net/mw/images/Arctic-swipa-spm.pdf

The Arctic Transformed

The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth. Over the past 50 years, the Arctic’s temperature has risen by more than twice the global average.

● http://www.amap.no/swipa2017

The Arctic Council is the leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, coordination, and interaction among the Arctic States, Arctic indigenous peoples, and other Arctic inhabitants on common Arctic issues, in particular on issues of environmental protection and sustainable development in the Arctic. Established in 1996, the Arctic Council is composed of eight Member States (Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States). It also includes six organizations representing Arctic indigenous peoples.

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April 2017

● How a Melting Arctic Changes Everything

● Exxon and Rosneft Arctic Drilling Agreement, Russian Sanctions, On or Off?

● Arctic Ocean Is Becoming More Like the Atlantic Ocean

● Pushed by Currents, Billions of Pieces of Plastic Pollution from World's Oceans End Up in the Arctic

● New Expanded Arctic Drilling Policies Are in the Works

March 2017

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/vladimir-putin-visits-arctic-reaffirm-russia-claim-170329200545418.html

On a tour on the Franz Josef Land archipelago, a sprawling collection of islands where the Russian military has recently built a new runway and worked to open a permanent base, Putin emphasised on Wednesday (March 29) the need to protect Russia's economic and security interests in the Arctic.

"Natural resources, which are of paramount importance for the Russian economy, are concentrated in this region," Putin said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.

Putin said current estimates put the value of the Arctic's mineral riches at $30 trillion.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/01/knockin-russias-arctic-door

http://www.uarctic.org/news/2017/1/invitation-to-the-high-north-dialogue-conference-2017

http://arcticjournal.com/politics/3058/northern-approaches

NASA / Record Sea Ice Lows at North and South Poles

NASA's Earth Science News Team / Arctic sea ice appears to have reached on March 7 a record low wintertime maximum extent, according to scientists at NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. And on the opposite side of the planet, on March 3 sea ice around Antarctica hit its lowest extent ever recorded by satellites at the end of summer in the Southern Hemisphere...

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February 11, 2017 via CS Monitor — Records are shattering left and right across the Arctic, much like the ever-dwindling sea ice that once covered the entire Arctic Ocean.

First, the facts. January sea ice area has never been so small. In November, the coverage fell short of average by an area the size of the eastern half of the United States. Northeast Greenland had its warmest February day ever (by almost four degrees). The current heat wave brought temperatures near the North Pole to 50 degrees above average...

“We’re still trying to figure out what is happening here,” Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist with the Colorado-based Snow and Ice Data Center that compiles and reports the history of Arctic ice conditions.

“The ridiculously warm temperatures in the Arctic during October and November this year are off the charts over our 68 years of measurements,” Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Rutgers University...

Everyone agrees that "something is very, very wrong with the Arctic climate"...

Beyond the Extreme

“[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme,” wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an "Crazy times in the Arctic" article for Earth magazine.

The number of freezing degree days is far lower than any other period on record.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4Lj3gcWIAE6dqF.jpg

Between 1980 and 2016 the amount of summer ice in cubic kilometers has decreased by an estimated 72 percent...

Impacts of a warming Arctic / NASA 'Cryosphere' Science

Arctic 2.0: What happens after all the ice goes?

January 19, 2017

Arctic Sea Ice, Record Low

Northern Routes Open as Ice Retreats

Russia pushes into the Arctic

Exxon Mobil could tap huge Arctic assets if US - Russian relations thaw

Former Exxon CEO and new US Sec of State Rex Tillerson meets with Russian President Putin

during 2012 negotiations to move forward with joint oil/gas ventures described as historic

http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/22688/sakhalin-1-the-likely-source-for-sakhalin-2s-third-train

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/rex-tillerson-supporters-russia-exxon-ties-232524

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February 2017

February 1, 2017 -- Rex Tillerson Is Confirmed as Secretary of State Amid Record Opposition

ExxonMobil CEO closer to confirmation as US Secretary of State

Ex-Chief of ExxonMobil Testifies Before US Congress

President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said he believes the risks of climate change "could be serious enough that action should be taken,” but he did not elaborate on what that action should be.

Tillerson testified that he formed his views “over about 20 years as an engineer and a scientist, understanding the evolution of the science.” Ultimately, he said, he concluded that increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere are having an effect on the earth’s climate. But he added, “Our ability to predict that effect is very limited,” and precisely what actions nations should take “seems to be the largest area of debate existing in the public discourse.”

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December 2016

● US Department of Defense Report to Congress on Strategy to Protect United States National Security Interests in the Arctic Region

Geopolitics in the Arctic

Russia and the United States are moving with force to claim fossil fuel exploration and production rights

Canada, China, Norway and additional countries are look to join into the Arctic resource exploration

A 'gas/oil' resource rush is imminent despite inherent dangers and impacts on global climate

The critical, strategic demand continues for New Definitions of National and Global Security

https://fas.org/irp/congress/2009_hr/arctic.pdf

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/56408/Arctic_Oil_Gas_25_of_Worlds_Reserves_Beneath_Arctic_Seabed

A preliminary assessment by the US Geological Survey suggests the Arctic seabed may hold as much as 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves.

By one USGS reported estimate, 400 billion barrels of oil might lie beneath the Arctic seabed.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0731/p01s01-woeu.html

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059940271

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-russia-vladimir-putin-norway-nato-clear-policy-arctic-bases-submarines-military-a7453581.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/exxon-mobil-could-tap-huge-arctic-assets-if-us-russian-relations-thaw.html

A Final Presidential Decision Re: Arctic Oil/Gas

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-19/obama-said-to-use-1953-law-to-block-drilling-in-arctic-atlantic

December 19, 2016 / President Barack Obama prepares to leave office and prepares to block the sale of new offshore drilling rights in most of the U.S. Arctic and parts of the Atlantic. The executive order that could indefinitely restrict oil production there, according to people familiar with the decision.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/18/obama-blocks-new-oil-gas-drilling-in-arctic-ocean.html

Arctic Sea Ice at Record Lows / December 2016

http://phys.org/news/2016-12-state-arcticlonger-seasons-thinning-sea.html

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13122016/arctic-melting-climate-change-noaa-science

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89223

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card

Not Good News, Arctic Sea Ice News

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/09/2016-ties-with-2007-for-second-lowest-arctic-sea-ice-minimum/

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--PEakRtPE--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/xyasmhqdqgrzxvvqd3is.gif

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/17/the-north-pole-is-an-insane-36-degrees-warmer-than-normal-as-winter-descends/

First Cruise Ship Crossing the Ice-Free Arctic Passage

- https://www.greenpolicy360.net/w/File:Crystal_Serenity_cruises_2016.png

- https://www.wired.com/2016/03/climate-change-opens-first-luxury-arctic-cruise-route/

- http://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/15687-serenity-departs-for-northwest-passage-trip.html

- http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/crystal-serenity-cruise-ulukhaktok-1.3736984 Ulukhaktok

- http://www.ktva.com/shows/frontiers/episode-74-crystal-serenitys-historic-voyage-951/ Arrival (September 16, 2016) in New York City ...

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-shipping-arctic-idUSKCN12A14B

The beginning of cruise ships plying the formerly isolated, ice-bound region... prompting calls for a clamp-down to prevent Titanic-style accidents and the pollution of fragile eco-systems resulting from accidents -- and new gas/oil production.

Arctic nations begin to consider limiting the size of vessels and banning the use of heavy fuel oil in the region after first luxury cruise ship, Crystal Serenity, sailed through the Arctic from Alaska, across Canada's newly navigable Northwest Passage, to New York in the summer of 2016.

Next up, commercial shipping traffic, container ships ...

- http://container-news.com/arctic-ocean-shipping-routes-open-months/

Shipping industry report:

Sea-ice is in a committed, long-term decline as the polar north warms.

This year looks on course to be the second lowest in the satellite record. Researchers do not see this trend being reversed anytime soon.

“If we experience a 2-degree increase in global temperatures, we will get close to an Arctic that is effectively ice-free for part of the year; that’s less than a million sq km of ice cover,” said Reading University's Dr. Ed Hawkins.

“So, even if future emissions are consistent with the Paris agreement, it will of course mean shipping routes will be more open. Not every year, but more regularly than they are now.”

“Open water vessels won’t be hugging the Russian coast quite so much, and ice-strengthened ships will be going right over the pole,” he told BBC News.

Saving time

The incentives are clear: if vessels can transit the Arctic, they will shave many days off their journey times between the Pacific and North Atlantic ports, and save fuel.

In addition, by plotting a more central course, they can avoid the fees they would otherwise be charged for going through Siberian waters.

The team has been looking at how the opportunities might evolve in the decades ahead.

The group used five prominent climate computer models and essentially trained them to better reflect the distribution of Arctic sea-ice as seen in current observations.

They then ran those models forward through the century under different emissions scenarios, to gauge where and how frequently shipping routes would become navigable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route (Russia)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage (Canada)

2015

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sanctions-russia-arctic-shipping-idUSKBN0KV17520150122

2014/2013

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-arctic-shipping-idUSBRE92718420130308

2012/2011

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-rosneft-idUSBRE83H0UE20120418

Oil major ExxonMobil (XOM.N) and Russia's Rosneft ROSN.M unveiled an offshore exploration partnership on Wednesday that could invest upward of $500 billion in developing Russia's vast energy reserves in the Arctic and Black Sea.

The deal, between the world's largest listed oil firm and the world's top oil producing nation, was the product of nearly a year of talks and came about despite a history of mutual distrust between Washington and Moscow dating back to the Cold War and recent difficulties for other Western firms in Russia.

"Experts say that this project, in terms of its ambitions, exceeds sending man into outer space or flying to the moon," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, a key architect of the partnership, told a briefing for analysts in New York.

Under the deal, signed in Moscow on Monday, Exxon and state-controlled Rosneft will seek to develop three fields in the Arctic with recoverable hydrocarbon reserves estimated at 85 billion barrels in oil-equivalent terms.

A final investment decision on the projects in the Kara Sea, in the centre of Russia's north coast, is expected in 2016-17, Rosneft said in a video presentation at the event, which was hosted by Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson and Rosneft President Eduard Khudainatov.

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/06/us-russia-political-tensions-arctic

- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-arctic-ice-supertankers

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Geo-political Issues (@GreenPolicy's associated site, Strategic Demands)

http://strategicdemands.com/new-definitions-of-security/

http://strategicdemands.com/?s=eurasia