Too Hot

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The Sunset Cafe, Sundown Bell.jpg


馃サ When it gets too hot

Even your news is hot ....


Climate Change News
Toles - Dali - Climate.jpg


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How's Today's Temp? Look Here - https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

Climate Forecast System - https://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ | https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/climate-forecast-system
National Centers for Environmental Prediction - https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


Temperature World - chart via Climate Change Institute.jpg

 

Temperature - SST World via Climate Change Institute - 2023 chart.png

Via Climate Change Institute


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2023


Hottest Summer on Record


United Nations 鈥 "Earth just had its hottest three months on record," the United Nations weather agency said on Sept. 6.

"The dog days of summer are not just barking, they are biting," warned U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a statement coinciding with the release of the latest data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) by the World Meteorological Organization.


Too Hot in (and Around) the Mediterranean Sea

Mediterranean Sea warming to 'unprecedented' levels amid global heat wave


The waters of the Mediterranean Sea have spiked to a record-setting 84 degrees... a disturbing and growing trend.

Climate change has led to higher air temperatures in the Mediterranean, which raises water surface temperatures and evaporation... water from the Atlantic isn't getting into the Mediterranean as much as in the past, river flows are on the decline and the sea's waters are becoming hotter and saltier as a result.



Too, too hot in North America...


Off the West Coast

North America West Coast hot - Aug 2023.png



Off the East Coast and in the Caribbean...


Coral Bleaching due to heat stress

Off-shore North America
August 2023 / NOAA


Red shading (Alert Level 1) means "significant bleaching likely".

Dark red shading (Alert Level 2) means "severe bleaching and significant mortality likely."


Coral bleaching - NOAA - August 2023.png


Coral bleaching - August 2023.png



Too, too hot in South America...


South America is living one of the extreme events the world has ever seen.

"Unbelievable temperatures up to 38.9C in the Chilean Andine areas in mid winter! Much more than what Southern Europe just had in mid summer at the same elevation: This event is rewriting all climatic books."


鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼 鈼


The Heat Data Over the Ions:

Scientists Look Back and Study the Geologic Record

The last glacial episode lasted nearly 100,000 years. There is no evidence that long-term global temperatures reached the preindustrial baseline anytime during that period.

If we look even farther back, to the previous interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, we do find evidence of warmer temperatures. The evidence suggests the long-term average temperature was probably no more than 1.5 C (2.7 F)above preindustrial levels 鈥 not much more than the current global warming level.

Now what?

Without rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth is currently on course to reach temperatures of roughly 3 C (5.4 F) above preindustrial levels by the end of the century, and possibly quite a bit higher.

At that point, we would need to look back millions of years to find a climate state with temperatures as hot. That would take us back to the previous geologic epoch, the Pliocene, when the Earth鈥檚 climate was a distant relative of the one that sustained the rise of agriculture and civilization.''



"There is a very scientific word for this..."

"It's called summer" -- Sen. Tommy Tuberville


Senator Tuberville (R-Ala.) and other politicos in the climate change denying camp have again chosen to wave a flag of disinformation. As the news of record-breaking heat is being measured/monitored and reported by scientists around the world, some in the sway of politics are blocking effective action to deal with the threat to local, national and global security. In other words, we'd say to Senator Tommy whose prior career was football coach in the southern state of Alabama, get a better game plan, the world isn't 'single-wing' any more.


Snapshot after snapshot of the state-of-play: Make no mistake, humans have pushed the planet into uncharted territory. Devastating heat waves have plagued the U.S., Europe and Asia in recent weeks. The extent of sea ice surrounding Antarctica is at an all-time low. Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are at a record high. In the Florida Keys, hot tub-level marine temperatures have triggered widespread coral bleaching, and scientists have scrambled in recent days to rescue hundreds of corals before they perish....


And in the US, in Washington DC: On Capitol Hill, the GOP is advancing an appropriations bill that would gut funding for federal environmental agencies, mandate additional oil and gas lease sales both onshore and offshore, torpedo protections for wild animals, and rescind more than $9 billion provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden鈥檚 signature climate law that Democrats passed last year.

Right-wing groups recently crafted a 920-page 鈥渂attle plan鈥 鈥 dubbed Project 2025 鈥 to guide a future Republican administration in dismantling environmental regulations and stymying federal climate action...

Democrats said the historic clean energy investments they passed last year are already making an impact, not only in reducing emissions but also in changing minds in red states with new green energy jobs and the wave of manufacturing.

鈥淭here鈥檚 plenty of no-nothingism in this town now,鈥 Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 perfectly acceptable in certain circles to ignore the reality of the world as it is, and I just think that鈥檚 really dangerous.鈥

鈥淲e鈥檙e a country that鈥檚 flourished because for a long time, we鈥檝e believed in science and we鈥檝e followed facts,鈥 Heinrich continued. 鈥淓verybody鈥檚 entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.鈥


Stats - Green Research & Science


Good science needs good data .png


You can manage only what you can measure Dr David Crisp, OCO-2, June 2014 m.jpg



Fox News/Entertainment invokes an Institute called 'Heartland'

Fox editors 'cherry-pick' an op/ed piece that fits their denial narrative -- " Heat waves happen every year, but this isn鈥檛 evidence that Americans are facing a global warming crisis. "

It's not climate change... Extreme weather and heat waves are not, per Fox, signs of human-induced temperature rise and climate change


The Headline: It's not climate change that's causing heat waves this summer but no one wants to explain why


The Fox opinion-editorial piece featured today (last week of July 2023) makes a number of claims, e.g.,

- Fox-Heartland - Although certain parts of the U.S. have undoubtedly experienced strong heat waves this summer, there鈥檚 no reason to believe these weather events are evidence that the world is hurtling toward a climate change catastrophe. In fact, the best available evidence suggests that heat waves recorded a century ago were more problematic than anything we鈥檙e seeing today. ...

- Although it鈥檚 true that some parts of the U.S. have seen the number of hotter-than-usual days increase over the past 70 years 鈥 including in California and the New York metropolitan area, both of which happen to be areas where a large number of media outlets are located 鈥 most weather stations have shown no meaningful changes or even declines.

- When many media outlets and left-wing politicians talk about climate change data, they almost always selectively choose a range that offers an incomplete picture of the larger available dataset. This makes it appear as though today鈥檚 temperatures are "historic" when they are actually well within normal historical ranges. ...

- Heat waves happen every year, but this isn鈥檛 evidence that Americans are facing a global warming crisis. When heat-wave data are put into their proper historical context, it鈥檚 clear that everything humans are experiencing today has been witnessed in the past.

- The ugly truth behind climate alarmism is that much of it is driven by a radical ideological agenda that is seeking to transform the global economy and American society, not by science. The best way to fight back against it is to use cold, hard facts. And those facts plainly show that there is no reason to panic about our ever-changing climate.


So there you have it. Fox has ferreted out the "ugly truth" as explained by a member of the Heartland Institute. Let's take the Fox-Heartland Institute point of view (without examining who the deep-pocket funders of the Heartland Institute are and their motives), and let's look closer...


For example, there is this (rather long) "Community Comment" from July 27 in response to Fox/Heartland's main claims:

1. The main 鈥渆vidence鈥 that these Heartland folks are using to nullify climate change come from cherry picked local US data, totally out of context compared to WORLD data. Their supposition that the EPA and NOAA are conceding that there鈥檚 no real crisis is not the impression you get when you go to their actual websites:

Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves | US EPA

Heat waves are occurring more often than they used to in major cities across the United States. Their frequency has increased steadily, from an average of two heat waves per year during the 1960s to six per year during the 2010s and 2020s.

In recent years, the average heat wave in major U.S. urban areas has been about four days long. This is about a day longer than the average heat wave in the 1960s.

The average heat wave season across the 50 cities in this indicator is about 49 days longer now than it was in the 1960s (see Figure 1). Heat waves have become more intense over time. During the 1960s, the average heat wave across the 50 cities in Figures 1 and 2 was 2.0掳F above the local 85th percentile threshold. During the 2020s, the average heat wave has been 2.3掳F above the local threshold (see Figure 1).

Of the 50 metropolitan areas in this indicator, 46 experienced a statistically significant increase in heat wave frequency between the 1960s and 2020s. Heat wave duration has increased significantly in 29 of these locations, the length of the heat wave season in 44, and intensity in 17.


Longer-term records show that heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe in recorded U.S. history (see Figure 3). The spike in Figure 3 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the 鈥淒ust Bowl.鈥 Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.6 So yeah, while the Dust Bowl was an extreme event, the EPA is NOT assuming its isolated example refutes present world climate change. And in fact:

2. The climate denier Dust Bowl argument falls apart when you realize that although temps were indeed extreme, this was a local US event, not reflected in simultaneous heat waves elsewhere in the world as is the case now.

3, Here鈥檚 a Washington Post article from last year that explains this further:

Why the 1930s Dust Bowl made the Plains hotter than this week's heat wave - The Washington Post

Why the Dust Bowl doesn鈥檛 disprove climate change

鈥淪ince the event, the United States has warmed about a degree-and-a-half due to human-induced climate change 鈥 but the Dust Bowl remains a favorite anecdote for some who deny climate science.

Steve Milloy, an outspoken opponent of climate scientists and a former member of President Donald Trump鈥檚 Environmental Protection Agency transition team, frequently cites Dust Bowl-era observations in efforts to undermine recent climate warming.

鈥淛uly 20, 2022 was hot in the US for sure. But not nearly as hot as July 20, 1934,鈥 he tweeted on Tuesday, the day that both Mangum, Okla., and Wichita Falls, Tex., hit 115 degrees.

Atmospheric scientists, including many PhD researchers who have published peer-reviewed studies, assert that comparing the events is like comparing apples to oranges.

鈥淔or me, the main issue with the 鈥1930s were hot鈥 meme is that a global perspective shows that the very hot part of the planet was quite small,鈥 wrote Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M, in an email. He shared a plot of temperature anomalies during 1936, noting the greatest departure from average was localized only to the Plains and the Canadian Prairie.鈥


More re: a Heartland Institute (CO2 Coalition and PragerU) point of view:

Via InsideClimateNews, July 2023: In 2017, the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank that rejects the scientific consensus on climate change and the health impacts of smoking, sent 350,000 copies of its publication, 鈥淲hy Scientists Disagree About Global Warming,鈥 to teachers across the country. The campaign had mixed results, as some teachers used the materials to teach about the dangers of propaganda. This year, Heartland sent out copies of a new publication called 鈥淐limate at a Glance,鈥 which the institute claims 鈥減rovides the data to show the earth is not experiencing a climate crisis,鈥 to 8,000 teachers. Other groups, like the CO2 Coalition, a nonprofit foundation that focuses on CO2鈥檚 benefits, and Prager University, a conservative advocacy and media organization, have also targeted children with materials questioning the existence or severity of the climate crisis.



And let's add a GreenPolicy360 reply to the Fox-selected opinion piece by Heartland Institute:

The Fox-Heartland Institute piece focuses on the US, a select number of 1930s "dustbowl" years and ignores the conclusions (extensively documented by EPA, NOAA, and NASA and most all Earth Science academics) that climate change is a global, "whole earth" phenomena. Yet, as most all scientist in most all related scientific fields agree, the climate change/global warming record has to be studied "360" (as we at GreenPolicy put it). We are studying planet science.

The science, facts, temperatures, oceans, seas, land, atmosphere (especially the lower atmosphere, the troposphere) are now all being "measured and monitored" across national borders, with land- and sea-level instruments, and remotely with scanning devices from near-Earth orbit Earth Observation Science missions that began to be launched in the 1970s. The record is now longer, more extensive, and more complete, with data bases 'crunching' through vast libraries of dynamic (changing) data available.

What we say to Fox is -- to those who care to see and know... the facts are there to observe and report in an unbiased, competent way.



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South Florida and It's Surrounding Sea Waters Are Hot

Off-shore, the Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic Gulf Stream Are 'Hurricane-Feeding Temp'


It's hot in South Florida - July 2023.jpg



Florida sea surface water in the Keys area tops 100 degree F.jpg


A Desperate Push to Save Florida鈥檚 Coral: Get It Out of the Sea

Teams dedicated to ocean restoration are urgently moving samples to tanks on land as a marine heat wave devastates entire reefs -- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/climate/coral-reefs-heat-florida-ocean-temperatures.html

With climate change ravaging Florida鈥檚 beloved reef, people who鈥檝e devoted their careers to restoring coral in the sea are now racing to get it out of the water, to tanks on land. They鈥檙e pushing through feelings of grief and fear over the future to save what genetic material and young corals they can. But in the background, an existential question looms: How can they restore reefs if the ocean is getting too hot for coral to live there?


Florida Keys sea surface temps for 2023 (as of July).png


Ghost reefs: Florida鈥檚 vibrant underwater cities are turning into relics


by: Jeff Berardelli

Posted: Jul 27, 2023

Jeff Berardelli is a climate specialist and the Chief Meteorologist at News Channel 8.


TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) 鈥 In the Florida Keys, this is the face of climate change.

Once colorful coral cities overflowing with marine life, transforming into ghost towns, or better stated, 鈥淕host reefs鈥 seemingly overnight...

We are surprised by the pace. It is unprecedented what we have seen,鈥 said Scott Atwell the communications and outreach manager for The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

Atwell told WFLA Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Tuesday: 鈥淲e鈥檝e never seen anything like this. Some are not even bleaching, they are going straight to dead.鈥

鈥淪traight to dead鈥 illustrates just how extreme the marine heatwave is and how quickly it鈥檚 evolving. When under stress, typically coral bleach first, expelling their symbiotic algae partners which give them their vibrant hues, and turn white. Then sometime later, if the heat persists, the coral can succumb and die.

(In) the Florida Keys, there are reports of rapid mortality. Coral is dropping like dominoes across much of the reef tract from Key Largo to Key West 鈥 the third largest tract in the world and the only shallow water reef system in the U.S. mainland.


Florida ocean water temp south of Everglades tops 99 F. degrees.png


Sea Surface waters in S. Florida go from bath tub temp to hot tub temperature.jpg


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Mariam Zachariah: Zacharia and the World Weather Attribution Science Explains the Heat


July 2023 saw extreme heatwaves in several parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including the Southwest of the US and Mexico, Southern Europe and China. Temperatures exceeded 50C on the 16th of July in Death Valley in the US as well as in Northwest China (CNN,2023). Records were also reached in many other weather stations in China and the all-China heat record was broken in Sanbao on the 16th of July. In Europe, the hottest ever day in Catalunya was recorded and highest-ever records of daily minimum temperature were broken in other parts of Spain. In the US, parts of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico tied their all time high, parts of Arizona, Cayman Islands, highest ever night time temperatures in Phoenix Arizona which also had its record for longest time without falling below 90F/32.2C.

Scientists from the World Weather Attribution initiative collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme July heat in these three regions.


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We are living through Earth鈥檚 hottest month on record, scientists say

It鈥檚 not just a record-hot day or two, unprecedented heat waves or abnormally warm ocean waters: All indications are that this will be the hottest single month on Earth on record, and possibly in more than 100,000 years. Every day this month has set records for average global annual temperatures, and already, 17 days in July have been hotter than any others in more than 40 years of global observations, climate scientists said.

Not even three weeks into the month, scientists鈥 declarations of an already assured monthly global record serve to punctuate what has been an onslaught of recent weather extremes. . . .

In line with what has been expected from past climate projections and IPCC reports these events are not rare anymore today. North America, Europe and China have experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years as a result of warming caused by human activities, hence the current heat waves are not rare in today鈥檚 climate with an event like the currently expected approximately once every 15 years in the US/Mexico region, once every 10 years in Southern Europe, and once in 5 years for China.

Without human induced climate change these heat events would however have been extremely rare. In China it would have been about a 1 in 250 year event while maximum heat like in July 2023 would have been virtually impossible to occur in the US/Mexico region and Southern Europe if humans had not warmed the planet by burning fossil fuels.

In all the regions a heatwave of the same likelihood as the one observed today would have been significantly cooler in a world without climate change. Similar to previous studies we found that the heatwaves defined above are 2.5掳C warmer in Southern Europe, 2掳C warmer in North America and about 1掳C in China in today鈥檚 climate than they would have been if it was not for human-induced climate change. Unless the world rapidly stops burning fossil fuels, these events will become even more common and the world will experience heatwaves that are even hotter and longer-lasting. A heatwave like the recent ones would occur every 2-5 years in a world that is 2掳C warmer than the preindustrial climate.


Full Report | Author(s) - M. Zachariah et alia

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"The heat index reached 152 degrees in the Middle East 鈥 nearly at the limit for human survival"

Read the Comments following the Washington Post report on latest temperatures across the planet -- https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/18/extreme-heat-record-limits-human-survival/


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Climate Headline News around the World - July 2023.jpg


Too Hot July 17 2023.png


A Week of Hot Climate News from Around the World

Screenshots from the Second Week of July 2023


Headlines/graphics Compiled by Simon Evans of Carbon Brief


Visit a "week in extreme weather", the Thread at Twitter

30+ Posts of news publisher frontpages from around the world


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Hot, Hot

NCEP @NOAA has placed Earth's average temperature yesterday (July 3rd) as the hottest single day thus far measured by humans.

This is driven by the combination of El Ni帽o on top of global warming, and we may well see a few even warmer days over the next 6 weeks.

-- pic.twitter.com/RCrROHaWwp


Global warming, by the digits

40 billion: Tonnes of planet-warming CO2 humans are emitting into the atmosphere every year, according to senior climate scientist Pieter Tans from the NOAA鈥檚 Global Monitoring Laboratory


CFSV2 world temp July 3, 2023.png


Heat Records Broken Across Earth


Dangerous Extreme Heat Topples Records Around the World


鈥楤eyond extreme鈥 ocean heat wave in North Atlantic is worst in 170 years


Too hot Europe 2023-06-27.png


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Heating up? How are Earth's oceans doing?

Global oceans were warmer last month than any other May in records stretching back to the 19th century, the European Union鈥檚 climate monitoring unit reported Wednesday (7 June).


Spain has experienced its hottest spring in over 60 years of recordkeeping, with average temperatures almost two degrees Celsius above average, the national weather agency reported Wednesday (7 June).


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Marta Schaaf / Amnesty International write of climate change effects:

Climate, economic, social justice -- a 'just energy transition' with 'corporate accountability'

鈥淭he effects of the climate crisis are increasingly evident. A severe heatwave is currently gripping large parts of Asia, including Thailand, Laos, Bangladesh, parts of China and swathes of India, with temperatures far exceeding 40藲C. There is water rationing in Tunisia and a shortage in Spain, the forest fire season has already begun in France, and there are warnings that the harvest in Morocco and the wider Maghreb will be reduced by drought. A just energy transition away from fossil fuels has never been more urgent and we are not moving fast enough to prevent a catastrophic rise in global temperatures.鈥 -- Marta Schaaf, Director of Climate, Economic and Social Justice, and Corporate Accountability Programme, Amnesty International


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Siberian Extremis, No Way, Way

When climate change goes extreme

June 3, 2023 ... Heatwave in Siberia with reports of temperatures exceeding 38掳C (100.4掳F), breaking monthly and an all time heat record


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Oceans hottest in 2022.png

* https://weather.com/news/climate/video/worlds-ocean-were-hottest-on-record-in-2022


Global Sea Surface Temperatures are at record levels. The North Atlantic is a whole 1 degree F above record territory.

* https://twitter.com/weatherprof/status/1666940759759630338


2022


Mapping changes in global temperature 1850-2022.png


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Temp update from Berkeley Earth org - Aug 2022.png


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Los Angeles and Southern California getting hotter.png


California temperatures soar to new records, adding strain to power grid

Via Reuters


California Governor's Office of Emergency Services


'Heat Dome' & 'Rolling Blackouts'


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Where We'll End Up Living as the Planet Burns

By Gaia Vince


Adapted from Gaia Vince鈥檚 new book NOMAD CENTURY: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World, published by Flatiron Books (August 2022)


While nations are trying to cut their carbon emissions and adapt to warmer climates, the elephant in the room is that for large parts of the globe, the local conditions are too extreme. There is no other way of adapting. To survive, people will need to relocate.

The next 50 years will see increased heat, combined with greater humidity, make huge swathes worldwide uninhabitable. Massive numbers will have to flee from the tropics, coasts, and former arable lands. You will either be one of them or they will give you housing. This migration has already begun鈥攚e have all seen the streams of people fleeing drought-hit areas in Latin America, Africa, and Asia where farming and other rural livelihoods have become impossible.

Over the past decade, global migration has increased by two-thirds. The issue of dealing with the rapidly rising number of refugees will be more important as the earth heats.

We can鈥攁nd we must鈥攑repare. A radical plan to ensure humanity鈥檚 survival in a hotter world involves building new large cities to the far north and abandoning vast areas of the unsustainable tropics. This involves adapting food, energy and infrastructure to the changing environment. As billions are forced from their homes, they will need new housing.

Cooperating like never before is our best chance of success: dissociating the political map and geography. It may sound absurd, but we must look at the world from a new perspective and create plans that are based on geography, ecology, and geology. In other words: identify the areas with the greatest freshwater supply, safe temperatures, solar energy sources, and plan for population growth, food, and energy production. The good news is, there鈥檚 plenty of room on Earth...


More on Climate Migration @GreenPolicy360 -- https://www.greenpolicy360.net/w/Category:Climate_Migration


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August 2022


China Record Heat - August 2022.png


Extreme Temperatures / China / 2022


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Another Weather Forecast

鈥淭he results will be dire鈥: Extreme heat to impact a quarter of US by midcentury


Dire?

Report: Some 107 million Americans will experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees F by 2053


""Hazardous Heat"


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True or Not: 鈥楨xtreme heat belt鈥 will impact more than 100 million Americans

鈥淲e need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125 degrees Fahrenheit and the results will be dire鈥
* https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/3602580-extreme-heat-belt-will-impact-more-than-100-million-americans-study/


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Around the world, we鈥檙e witnessing the impacts of global heating: in the past week, airport runways have melted in the UK, wildfires have torched huge swathes of Europe, and more than 100 million Americans have sweltered in dangerously high temperatures. Already this year, prolonged heatwaves and drought in many of the world鈥檚 breadbaskets have exacerbated a global food shortage that has raised the number of people living with food insecurity from 440 million to 1.6 billion.

There are many to blame for the climate crisis and its extreme weather impacts. Executives of fossil fuel companies bear the greatest responsibility. More than anything else, it has been their great deceit 鈥 their burying of climate science, funding of climate denial, and spending of billions to kill climate policy 鈥 that has prevented us from transitioning away from an economy powered by coal, oil and gas. Compromised politicians, including the entire Republican party and the Democratic coal baron Joe Manchin, deserve special condemnation, too.

In the cast of climate villains, however, another character rises to claim a special place on center stage: Wall Street.

On 12 December 2015, virtually every nation on earth adopted the Paris agreement. 鈥淭oday, the American people can be proud 鈥 because this historic agreement is a tribute to American leadership,鈥 enthused President Obama. But there were problems from the beginning. The most obvious was that the agreement was voluntary; it lacked a legally binding commitment to reduce emissions. Another major problem was that no one on Wall Street was paying attention.

Since the Paris Agreement, the six largest US banks 鈥 Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs 鈥 have provided $1.4tn in financing to the fossil fuel industry. Indeed, since that heralded day in the French capital, the world鈥檚 four largest funders of fossil fuel expansion have all been US banks. So much for 鈥淎merican leadership鈥.


Read more in The Guardian


馃サ


Environmental full-cost accounting


Confronting Externalities

Measuring Full Costs: Dealing with Damage to 'The Commons'


馃サ


BP profit 14 yr high - Aug 2022.png


August 2, 2022


BP sees biggest profit in 14 years

Oil/Gas Prices Soar

Energy giant sees underlying profits hit $8.45bn (拢6.9bn) between April and June - more than triple the amount it made in same period last year



Short-term profit taking ..... long-term 'externality' costs adding up


Today (July 30), oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron reported historic profits from the last three months. Exxon made $17.9 billion (not a typo) last quarter, up 273% from the same time last year, while Chevron made $11.6 billion. Exxon鈥檚 rate of income was $2,245.62 every second of every day for the past 92 days; Chevron made $1,462.11 per second.

Together, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies are expected to announce $60 billion in profits for the past three months. They plan to spend much of the profit not on reinvesting in their businesses, but on stock buybacks, which drives up the price of the stock. (HCR)



July 2022


'Oil/Gas Capital of the World'.... Say What Lone Star State?

Hot weather and climate change ... in Houston.png

Houston, Texas, is experiencing its hottest summer on record, with sizzling stretches of triple digit days and rolling blackouts caused by extreme power demand. Lena Arango, a local meteorologist at FOX26, wanted her viewers to understand why. 鈥淭he temperatures we鈥檙e experiencing today are five times more likely [because of] climate change,鈥 she said on a TV forecast earlier this month. 鈥淚 thought that was pretty interesting.鈥



Nationally Integrated Heat Health Information System

Heat related illnesses and death are largely preventable with proper planning, education, and action. Heat.gov serves as a vital source of heat and health information for the nation to reduce the health, economic, and infrastructural impacts of extreme heat.

Heat.gov is the web portal for the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS).


How Hot? Lawyerly Hot


Heat Waves: Legal Adaptation to the Most Lethal Climate Disaster (So Far)

By Michael B. Gerrard

Michael B. Gerrard is Andrew Sabin Professor of Professional Practice and Faculty Director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School. He formerly chaired the faculty of Columbia University鈥檚 Earth Institute, and the Section of Environment, Energy and Resources of the American Bar Association


(Conclusion-Excerpt)

State legislatures should expand the warranty of habitability to require landlords to provide tenants with protection against heat as well as cold. Low-income energy assistance programs should be fully funded and should cover both the purchase of air conditioners and the electricity to run them (as they now help pay for heating oil and gas). As is now the case with military family housing, public housing in all but the coolest areas should have air conditioning. Because this action could make the housing less affordable, the government will need to step up its funding to fill the need.

Building codes should encourage ventilation, awnings, shades, and other traditional methods to lower the heat.

Governments at all levels should buy only the most efficient air conditioners to help drive the market. The federal government should progressively tighten the efficiency standards for air conditioning to help drive the technology.

To lower the urban heat island effect and reduce energy demand, states and cities should require cool roofs, green roofs, or solar panels for new buildings and reconstructed roofs where the geometry of the architecture allows it. Incentives such as tax credits should be provided to help owners retrofit existing buildings. Paved surfaces should be minimized, and where they are necessary, created with light-colored and preferably porous pavement. Cities should plant large numbers of trees on public property, and maintain them well, ideally with community assistance. Cities should also require private developments to preserve as many trees as possible, and to have extensive landscaping and vegetation, both horizontal and vertical.

Social service agencies should encourage programs to check in on vulnerable people (especially the elderly and disabled living alone) during heat waves. Heat warnings and tips should be widely announced through broadcast and social media. All-night cooling centers should be established, and their locations well-publicized. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities should be frequently checked during heat waves.

Air conditioning should be provided in the hottest prisons, jails, and other detention facilities, and at least passive cooling in the rest. Where it is still hot, inmates should be given ample cool water and allowed to take frequent showers. Contracts with private facilities should require the same precautions. The size of the incarcerated population should also be reduced, but that is straying into other areas of law.

In the occupational setting, OSHA should establish formal binding standards for heat exposure and relief, not just guidelines, and it should conduct frequent inspections to ensure compliance. For outdoor workers, precautions similar to those adopted by the United States Armed Forces and California should be required.

If all of this is done, people and communities will be much better able to cope with the extreme temperatures that are in our future.



London is Hot.png


Europe heat wave - July 19 2022 - via Copernicus satellite.png


LONDON (AP) 鈥 Britain shattered its record for highest temperature ever registered Tuesday (July 19), with a provisional reading of 39.1 degrees Celsius (102.4 degrees Fahrenheit) 鈥 and the national weather forecaster predicted it would get hotter still.


Heatwave More evacuations as Mediterranean wildfires spread - BBC News.png


UK: Extreme Heat Warning


Two months ago, France experienced its hottest May on record, with record highs in some cities. Last month, France was blistered again, by a spring heat wave that also affected Spain, Italy and other countries. Then, this month, Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe suffered during a spell of extreme heat.

Now temperatures across Europe are soaring yet again, at or near triple digits from Spain to the British Isles and spreading east. Wildfires stoked by the heat are burning in many countries, and much of the continent is in the throes of a lengthy drought.

And there are still two months of summer left.

Scientists say the persistent extreme heat already this year is in keeping with a trend. Heat waves in Europe, they say, are increasing in frequency and intensity at a faster rate than almost any other part of the planet, including the Western United States. (NYT/July 18)


Heat and humidity gets dangerous to health sooner than most people realise


"It's way too late I'm afraid to stop runaway climate change,i.e. well beyond 1.5C.

You only have to look at the picture on energy use to realise that


The Times view on dangerous heatwaves: Climate Alarm


It's Hot the Times UK Says... Act Now or else - July 2022.png



EXTREME SUMMER: Summer in America is becoming hotter, longer and more dangerous

The process is 鈥渢urning what for many Americans is a time of joy into stretches of extreme heat, dangerously polluted air, anxiety, and lost traditions.鈥

Scientists say the recent spate of severe summers is a clear change from previous generations. The average summer temperature in the past five years has been 1.7 degrees (0.94 Celsius) warmer than it was from 1971 through 2000, according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But some parts of the country have been much harder hit, with the West showing a 2.7 degrees (1.5 Celsius) increase.


Journal of Climate

Sixfold Increase in Historical Northern Hemisphere Concurrent Large Heatwaves Driven by Warming and Changing Atmospheric Circulations


More global heat records are broken, from the Arctic to Japan

June heat waves set monthly and all-time high-temperature records in the U.S., Europe, Asia and the Russian Arctic...



June 2022


Texas Hot


Around the World Hot


In a blistering hot June around the Northern Hemisphere, in which heat records have fallen on every continent, Japan is the latest to swelter. Temperatures shot above 104 degrees (40 Celsius) for the first time on record during the month, another clear sign of the sweeping effects of human-caused climate change. (WaPo, June 26)


Europe Sizzles

Germany Hot.png


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"It's not going to be something you can escape."

How Extreme Heat Kills, Sickens, Strains and Ages Us

Researchers are drilling down into the ways life on a hotter planet will tax our bodies, and looking for protections that, unlike air-conditioning, don鈥檛 make the problem worse


June 14, 2022

Too Hot in US - 2.png


Too Hot US June 2022.png


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NASA


Hot Springtime for India


Too Hot in India - Apr 2022.png


 

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Australia reaches global high temperatures


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Ocean warmth sets record high in 2021 due to greenhouse gas emissions

Since the late 1980s, Earth鈥檚 oceans warmed at a rate eight times faster than the preceding decades


Global Report: Fifth Warmest Year on Record

Last seven years hottest ever recorded globally

Gavin Schmidt, who heads NASA鈥檚 temperature team, said 鈥渢he long-term trend is very, very clear. And it鈥檚 because of us. And it鈥檚 not going to go away until we stop increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.鈥


Gavin Schmidt - NASA - January 2022.png



The past seven years have been the hottest in recorded history, new data shows

Global temperatures in 2021 were among the highest ever observed, with 25 countries setting new annual records, according to scientists from NASA, NOAA and Berkeley Earth


Via Berkeley Earth

Berkeley Earth is a Berkeley, California-based independent 501 non-profit focused on land temperature data analysis for climate science. Berkeley Earth was founded in early 2010 with the goal of addressing the major concerns from outside the scientific community regarding global warming and the instrumental temperature record.


Press Release: 2021 Was Warmenst Year on Record for 1.8 Billion People


2020 Global Temperature Report
2019 Global Temperature Report


Temperature Data Files, Updated Monthly
Berkeley Earth Methodology


 

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Dr Katherine Calvin appointed NASA chief scientist and senior climate advisor.png


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December 2021


Kodiak, Alaska.

This is berserk. Kodiak, Alaska hit 65 degrees today, 20 DEGREES warmer than their previous record.

Not their average. Their record.


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November


Global temperature over the last 24,000 years find warming unprecedented:

1. GHG concentrations;
2. ice-sheet retreat;
3. warming rate unprecedented


 

The study, published in Nature 10 11 2021, had three main findings:

It verified that the main drivers of climate change since the last ice age are rising greenhouse gas concentrations and the retreat of the ice sheets.

It suggests a general warming trend over the last 10,000 years, settling a decade-long debate about whether this period trended warmer or cooler in the paleoclimatology community.

The magnitude and rate warming over the last 150 years far surpasses the magnitude and rate of changes over the last 24,000 years.


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Earth gets hotter, deadlier during decades of climate talks - AP Oct 30 2021.png

Earth gets hotter, deadlier during decades of climate talks


October


Global Changes in temperature 1850-2020.jpg

 

September


The hottest summer most Americans have ever lived through

Via Yale Climate Connections


August


Mediterranean Style Heat Setting Records

Aug. 13, 2021

Sicily 鈥 Before this week, the small Sicilian town of Floridia had a few claims to fame. The second wife of a Bourbon king was the town鈥檚 duchess. The snails that are a local delicacy are raised here. Its surrounding fields won it the greenest city in Italy prize in 2000. Its mayor is among Italy鈥檚 youngest.

But now Floridia has become known for something else, something far more ominous. It is perhaps the most blisteringly hot town in the recorded history of Europe, offering Italy and the entire Mediterranean a preview of a sweltering and potentially uninhabitable future brought on by the globe鈥檚 changing climate.

鈥淔loridia is now the center of the world when it comes to the climate,鈥 said Mayor Marco Carianni... a day after a nearby monitoring station registered a temperature of 119.84 degrees...


NOAA declares July 2021 the hottest month on Earth since record-keeping began


(August 13) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared July 2021 the world鈥檚 hottest month in 142 years of records. 鈥淚n this case, first place is the worst place to be,鈥 NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement.

鈥淭his new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.鈥


Russia-Siberia Wildfires Rage


Heat Emergency Brings Record Temperature and Fire to Southern Europe

Evacuations Spread as Fires Flare Up


Greece experiences its hottest day on record this week and wildfires leave much of Southern Europe struggling to cope


More history-making fires in California

Wildfires 2021 - August.jpg


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Power outages cripple parts of the Middle East amid record heat waves and rising unrest

A team of chemists at the American University in Beirut estimated this month that Lebanon's nearly 24-hour reliance on generators is poisoning the air eight times as fast as when Beirut was operating generators on average only several hours a day. ... The brutal heat is punishing...鈥淭he heat is so bad that it hurts you. It鈥檚 hard to even describe to someone who hasn鈥檛 experienced it,鈥 said Tahsin Mohamed, sitting in his home in the southern Iraqi town of Majer. He rolled up his long, black djellaba shirt to reveal a burn scar etched on his shin.鈥淚magine,鈥 he said. 鈥淭he sun did that to me.鈥


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Seven Big Warnings

The 'killer heat wave', the 鈥榟eat dome鈥 signalled our new reality. Here are key issues we must address now 鈥 or pay a big price later.


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July 14, 2021

Via Associated Press / By Seth Borenstein

The West is going through 鈥渢he trifecta of an epically dry year followed by incredible heat the last two months and now we have fires,鈥 said University of California Merced climate and fire scientist John Abatzoglou. 鈥淚t is a story of cascading impacts.鈥

And one of climate change, the data shows.

RECORD HEAT

In the past 30 days, the country has set 585 all-time heat records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of those, 349 are for daily high temperatures and 236 are the warmest overnight low temperatures, which are vital for people to recover from deadly heat waves.


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The Middle East is burning. This threat could turn it into scorched earth

Two recent heat waves in the Gulf are a sign of things to come as temperatures rise due to climate change


鈥淏usiness-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heat waves in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region)鈥

In the space of little more than a month, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates and other countries bordering the Gulf have suffered two blistering heat waves. In back-to-back doozies, temperatures pushed past 50 degrees centigrade (122 degrees fahrenheit), once early June and again in the first days of July. Bahrain experienced its hottest June in nearly a century.

The MENA region is destined to suffer lengthy bouts of temperatures exceeding 55-56 degrees celsius during this century. In urban environments, where an increasing share of the population lives, top temperatures could spike by another 3-4 degrees due to a phenomenon called 鈥渦rban heat islands.鈥

鈥淭he warming is getting worse and getting faster.鈥

Israel, like much of the Middle East, is seeing temperatures rising faster in the summer than in the winter.

Climate change may also strike a final, fatal blow to the many governments in the Arab world that are barely functioning...


North Africa Heat Wave:

Today 11 July was another scorching day with more all time record temperatures set


The Arctic Melts


Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in North America

Highest minimum temperature ever recorded worldwide in July


Trouble in Alaska? Massive oil pipeline is threatened by thawing permafrost


In California鈥檚 interior, there鈥檚 no escape from the desperate heat: 鈥榃hy are we even here?鈥


11 July 2021 was another historic day: Stovepipe Wells in the Death Valley area recorded a new world record of the highest daily average temperature on records with a staggering average temperature of 47.9C.


Death Valley temperatures just got more complicated


Rising temperatures: How to avoid heat-related illnesses and deaths - Harvard Health


From Portland, Oregon, to Vancouver, Canada, the heat during the end of June didn't just break records; it buried them


Climate and National Security.jpg

Surface temperatures in Siberia heat up to a mind-boggling 118 degrees

Climate change is behind record-breaking heat waves
From heating human bodies to baking the Earth


Warning Flashes for Europe: Climate Change Will Heat the Continent


During the heat wave of 2003, European cities cooked their people. It was the hottest August in at least half a millennium, temperatures in the high 30s squatted over much of the continent for weeks. The EU estimates that something like 80,000 people died. French President Jacques Chirac attended a somber burial service for 57 people whose bodies were never claimed.

Under any future warming scenario, a summer like 2003 will be disturbingly normal. According to EU research, at 1.5 degrees of warming, around one in every five people in the EU and U.K. will experience similar heat in any given year. At 3 degrees, that rises to more than half the population.

The heat is literally maddening. Italian researchers found a strong link between psychiatric emergencies and daily temperature. Suicides doubled in Moscow during a heat wave in 2010. In Madrid, incidents of domestic violence and women being murdered by their partners jump when the temperature goes over 34 degrees. Hot nights bring climate insomnia.


We aren鈥檛 helping ourselves. An increasing share of Europeans have made their homes in giant, heat-concentrating concrete crucibles. Cities are typically 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the surrounding countryside. If little is done to reduce global emissions, Europe鈥檚 cities could warm 6 to 10 degrees on top of that. The south will see the greatest increases. In Rome and other Mediterranean cities, the heat will become so intense that traditional architectural systems relying on natural ventilation will no longer function.

It鈥檚 bad timing for an experiment in heat endurance. Not only are millions migrating from rural areas into cement cities; Europe is also getting older and more vulnerable. Better medicine and falling birth rates mean the number of Europeans older than 65 is expected to rise by around 40 million by 2050, even as the overall population slowly declines.

The elderly are at high risk of dying from heat stress and heatstroke. Old bodies also get worn down by heat, making them more susceptible to asthma or cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Hot days see spikes in hospitalizations for age-related complaints. Aging populations are also more likely to be diabetic; heat causes blood vessels to dilate, absorbing insulin and dragging down blood sugar.


The world has barely warmed by more than 1 degree. But in 2010, the heat killed 54,000 in Russia and Central Europe. Eight years later, during a brutal heat wave that climate change made five times more likely, 104,000 died 鈥 the most in any region of the world that year. Germany alone recorded around two-thirds of the heat-related deaths of India, the Lancet medical journal reported, despite having a population 16 times smaller.

At these lower temperature increases, deaths are concentrated in Southern and Central Europe. If warming reaches 3 degrees, 200 million Europeans, not only in the south, but many in the north and the U.K., will live at high risk of heat stress. Without rapid changes to the built environment, the EU says extreme heat could kill 95,000 Europeans every year 鈥 more than 30 times the current average rate.


Of course, there are things we can do. The immediate answer is air conditioning. But that brings its own problems. Energy use for cooling buildings in the Mediterranean 鈥 already a big source of carbon emissions 鈥 will double by 2035. In Southern Europe a new cooling poverty gap is already opening up between those who can afford to beat the heat and those who can鈥檛.

Europe is destined to become a hot continent. Even though Northern Europeans face less steep temperature increases, they need to start thinking like southerners. Buildings designed to trap heat in winter do the same in summer. It costs four times as much to build passive cooling into an existing home than it does to fit it to a new build, according to the U.K.鈥檚 Committee on Climate Change. To cope, the streets of London, Copenhagen and Brussels will need to acquire the romantic, eyelidded feel that heavy wooden shutters bring to Rome and Marseille or the utilitarian look of roller blinds in Athens, Seville or Naples...


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America in 2090: The Impact of Extreme Heat, in Maps


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The "Wet Bulb"


What's the hottest temperature the human body can endure?

Via Live Science


The 'Wet Bulb' temperature takes into account both heat and humidity

With climate change causing temperatures to rise across the globe, extreme heat is becoming more and more of a health threat. The human body is resilient, but it can only handle so much. So what is the highest temperature people can endure?

The answer is straightforward: a wet-bulb temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius), according to a 2020 study in the journal Science Advances. Wet-bulb temperature is not the same as the air temperature you might see reported by your local forecaster...

~

"Wet bulb" temperature is the temperature plus relative humidity at which water stops evaporating off a "wet" thermometer bulb. If air is sufficiently humid (saturated w/ water vapor), evaporation will no longer cool the bulb, and it gets continuously hotter.

This matters for humans, because our bodies regulate heat via evaporation: sweat glands carry heat from body to the skin surface, where it evaporates, dissipating heat into the air. As long as you stay hydrated (and take salts! salt is important), you can stay cool at high temps.

However, a key interaction here is evaporation, which is controlled in part by a) amount of energy in the sweat (how much heat it is carrying) and b) how much moisture is already in the air.

Wet bulb (is) about the absorptive capacity of air. A wet bulb temperature in the mid-80s F can, and does, kill humans.


While body temp is ~97-99 F, we maintain temp by sweating. If sweat won't evaporate, our body temp rises, continuously. And when body temp hits ~108, we're dead.

For a vulnerable person in wet bulb temp, this takes much less than an hour.


(GreenPolicy360: Weather forecasters should begin to announce a Wet Bulb / WB temperature and/or a Human Heat Index as a matter of public service)


So, what does this have to do with you? Until last ~ 40 years, wet bulb temperatures were *extremely rare* on this planet.

But that's over, now. We're already seeing multiple wet bulb temperatures per year in multiple locations. By mid-century, parts of the Southeastern U.S will see *weeks* of wet bulbs *every year.*

This is quite bad. Thousands of people will die on each of those days.


Via the Washinton Post

Wet-bulb temperature is important, climate experts say. So what is it?

At a certain threshold of heat and humidity, 鈥渋t鈥檚 no longer possible to be able to sweat fast enough to prevent overheating.鈥

Scientists have found that Mexico and Central America, the Persian Gulf, India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia are all careening toward this threshold before the end of the century.


Hotter than the human body can handle: Pakistan city broils in world鈥檚 highest temperatures


Pakistan along the Indus Valley considered one of the places most vulnerable to climate change in the world, there are fears that Jacobabad's temperatures may increase further, or other cities may join the club.

鈥淭he Indus Valley is arguably close to being the number one spot worldwide,鈥 says Tom Matthews, a lecturer in climate science at Loughborough University. 鈥淲hen you look at some of the things to worry about, from water security to extreme heat, it's really the epicentre.鈥

Mr. Matthews and colleagues last year analysed global weather station data and found that Jacobabad and Ras al Khaimah, north east of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, have both temporarily crossed the deadly threshold. The milestone had been surpassed decades ahead of predictions from climate change models.

The researchers examined what are called wet bulb temperatures. These are taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth so they take into account both heat and humidity.

Wet bulb thermometer readings are significantly lower than the more familiar dry bulb readings, which do not take humidity into account. Researchers say that at a wet bulb reading of 35C, the body can no longer cool itself by sweating and such a temperature can be fatal in a few hours, even to the fittest people.

鈥淚t approximates how warm it feels to humans because we cool via sweating,鈥 Mr Matthews says. 鈥淲e rely on that exclusively. When you use that measure, the wet bulb temperature, the two regions that stand out on earth are the shores of the Gulf and the Indus Valley in Pakistan. They are truly exceptional...鈥

鈥淧eople are aware that the heat is getting up and up, but they are poor people. They can't go anywhere, they can't leave their places,鈥 said Zahid Hussain, a market trader. 鈥淚 myself have been thinking about shifting, but have never got around to it.鈥


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Dangerous humid heat extremes occurring decades before expected

Oppressively hot summer days often evoke the expression, 鈥渋t鈥檚 not the heat, it鈥檚 the humidity.鈥 That sticky, tropical-like air combined with high temperatures is more than unpleasant 鈥 it makes extreme heat a greater health risk.

Climate models project that combinations of heat and humidity could reach deadly thresholds for anyone spending several hours outdoors by the end of the 21st century. However, new research says these extremes are already happening 鈥 decades before anticipated 鈥 due to global warming to date.


The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance


 

June 2021


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Via The Guardian

A 鈥渉eat dome鈥 without parallel trapped hot air over much of the states of Oregon and Washington in the United States, and southern British Columbia in Canada, in past days, shattering weather records in the usually temperate region.

In Washington and Oregon, largely liberal, climate-conscious states, efforts to combat global heating have long been popular. The Washington governor, Jay Inslee, put himself forward as the 鈥渃limate candidate鈥 during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. He argued residents of the region would, in the absence of federal leadership, 鈥渄o our part to address a global problem鈥.

Climate conversations have generally centered on what north-westerners could do to protect the planet or other people in places at greater risk of extreme heat. But after three days of temperatures near or above 100F (38C) in Seattle 鈥 a city where residents often describe the sixth month as 鈥淛une-uary鈥, as temperatures rarely reach 80F (27C) 鈥 they鈥檙e increasingly concerned about themselves.

鈥淚t felt like we鈥檇 set our Earth on fire,鈥 said Summer Stinson, a 49-year-old resident of Seattle...


Temperatures in tiny Lytton, British Columbia, hit 49.6C (121.3F) and set a Canadian all-time record, days before a wildfire tore through the town. Roads buckled under the heat in Washington and Oregon. Heat and heavy air conditioner use knocked out power for tens of thousands. The dead, thought to number in the hundreds, are not yet counted.


Ron Merkord, CalTech: Lytton, British Columbia, Canada... Named in 1858 for a novelist named Edward Bulwer-Lytton. Two days ago, it set Canada's all time temp record of 121.3F. Yesterday, it hit 121.6F. Today, it burned to the ground. Bulwer-Lytton, a contemporary of Charles Dickens, is responsible for the saying "The pen is mightier than the sword". He is also the writer responsible for the beginning novel line called the worst ever written -- "It was a dark and stormy night..."

In Lytton today, it was indeed a dark and stormy night.


Lytton's municipal website boasts: 鈥淟ytton is the ideal location for nature lovers to connect with incredible natural beauty and fresh air freedom.鈥


Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, said this week鈥檚 unexpectedly fierce heat at Lytton and elsewhere should prompt climatologists to consider additional impacts of human activity.

鈥淲e should take this event very seriously,鈥 he wrote in an email. 鈥淵ou warm up the planet, you鈥檙e going to see an increased incidence of heat extremes. Climate models capture this effect very well and predict large increases in heat extremes. But there is something else going on with this heatwave, and indeed, with many of the very persistent weather extremes we鈥檝e seen in recent years in the US, Europe, Asia and elsewhere, where the models aren鈥檛 quite capturing the impact of climate change.鈥



Via Climate.gov

Astounding heat obliterates all-time records across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada

From Portland, Oregon, to Vancouver, Canada, the heat during the end of June didn't just break records; it buried them. Learn more in this Event Tracker post.


Devastating News: Climate Change Impacts to Hit Sooner than Predicted


Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on Earth in the coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions

Landmark report from the UN's climate science advisors obtained by AFP

Climate change threats to life on Earth are systemic, interconnected and on a scale unprecedented in human history


Global temperature change 1901-2000.jpg


Global temperature variations over past 200 years.jpg


 

 

Heat Stress in U.S. May Double
Heat stress in US may double by end of century.jpg


Earth trapping unprecedented amount of heat - NASA.jpg


Earth is now trapping an 鈥榰nprecedented鈥 amount of heat, NASA says

New research shows that the amount of heat the planet traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to more rapidly warming oceans, air and land


The amount of heat Earth traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to more rapidly warming oceans, air and land, according to new research from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

鈥淭he magnitude of the increase is unprecedented,鈥 said Norman Loeb, a NASA scientist and lead author of the study, which was published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. 鈥淭he Earth is warming faster than expected.鈥

Using satellite data, researchers measured what is known as Earth鈥檚 energy imbalance 鈥 the difference between how much energy the planet absorbs from the sun, and how much it鈥檚 able to shed, or radiate back out into space.

When there is a positive imbalance 鈥 Earth absorbing more heat than it is losing 鈥 it is a first step toward global warming, said Stuart Evans, a climate scientist at the University at Buffalo. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a sign the Earth is gaining energy.鈥


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From Clearwater, Florida, May 2021

GreenPolicy360 Siterunner/SJS:

Trendlines, we are looking at trendlines today. Data, the data changing as time passes. We need to step back and have perspective. We need to look closely, to 'drill down' and see with detail. Measure-to-Manage NASA says, science advises, GreenPolicy360 recommends as a guide.

GreenPolicy360 believes in personal responsibility to manage wisely. We are planet citizens and earth is in human hands. Together we are guiding our planet home into the future. We are delivering a legacy to future generations.

Join planet citizens who are monitoring our Earth's 'Vital Signs'.

One of GreenPolicy360's great concerns is climate change, as all our readers and sharers know. A recent study of a 'new normal' caught our attention today, a global study and national breakout of data changing over time. And as we are looking at this 'new normal' data, a century of temperatures, we cannot help but think what will happen if the temperature increases continue, a trendline into the future, up and up into the 'unliveable... uninhabitable' temperatures range. 'Cooling technology' will be required and being outdoors will be limited...

Let's look more closely, a recent news 'wrap up' from a science reporter for the Associated Press.

Look .... recognize the threats. Act planet citizens, act ....


Via the Washington Post
Unprecedented Heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
June 29, 2021



Record heat bakes Middle East as temperatures top 125 degrees

It has been called 鈥榯he harshest heat wave in history for this time of the year鈥

June 9, 2021


Via the Boston Globe

Ninety degree days occurring earlier and more often. A rising toll of health effects

What does this say about climate change?

June 7, 2021


Via the Associated Press

Billions projected to suffer nearly unlivable heat in 2070

By Seth Borenstein

May 4, 2020


(AP) 鈥 In just 50 years, 2 billion to 3.5 billion people, mostly the poor who can鈥檛 afford air conditioning, will be living in a climate that historically has been too hot to handle, a new study said.

With every 1.8 degree (1 degree Celsius) increase in global average annual temperature from man-made climate change, about a billion or so people will end up in areas too warm day-in, day-out to be habitable without cooling technology, according to ecologist Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

'How many people will end up at risk depends on how much heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions are reduced and how fast the world population grows.

Under the worst-case scenarios for population growth and for carbon pollution 鈥 which many climate scientists say is looking less likely these days 鈥 the study in Monday鈥檚 journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences predicts about 3.5 billion people will live in extremely hot areas. That鈥檚 a third of the projected 2070 population.


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GreenPolicy360 / Reporting from our terrestrial home base, Clearwater, Florida, USA:


As just one of multiple examples of what's coming with climate change and global warming, life in Florida, USA is going to be a quite a different experience in the not too distant future. Semi-tropical will become tropical. Then there's the water... not to cool off, but to deal with the consequences of heat...

Florida 13,576 km coastline is at the frontlines of global sea-level rise. Florida is, as few realize is also 'on top of water', situated on a peninsula of 'karst', an ancient seabed of porous limestone. Above the underground water exchange of fresh-and-seawater is a political brew. Florida today, unfortunately, has become chock full of climate-change denying politicos. The state's former governor, now a US Senator, denies climate change is a serious problem, closing his eyes and ears to policy preparation and action as he was reported forbidding state government officials from even using the term 'climate change' .... Florida's following governor, fortunately, is not as extreme in his views and signed a first-ever piece of legislation to establish a state climate-related resiliency program. So there... as of May 2021, signs of environmental protection and progress in the so-called "Sunshine State".

GreenPolicy360 will continue to do what we can to push Florida to become forward-looking. Perhaps a quick look at sea-level rise would be a place to start the new "Too Hot" GreenPolicy360 page.

-- SJS / May 13, 2021



May 2021

Miami gets a "Chief Heat Officer"

by Craig Pittman / Via the Washington Post


Jane Gilbert, the city鈥檚 new chief heat officer, says she will put together a task force of experts to address the problem

Last June, Miami reported its hottest temperatures on record. The daytime sun was brutal and there was little respite even at night. Dozens of heat-related deaths were reported that year.

As the Earth warms, the city by the ocean says its heat problem is poised to become even deadlier.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (D) recently announced the county was creating a first-of-its-kind position 鈥 chief heat officer.

鈥淲e know extreme heat does not impact people equally 鈥 poorer communities and Black and Hispanic people bear the brunt of the public health impacts,鈥 the mayor said in a statement. A chief heat officer will 鈥渃oordinate our efforts to protect people from heat and save lives.鈥


Q: But heat is such a fact of life in Miami. What makes that deserving of a chief officer?

A: Miami knows heat 鈥 we鈥檙e hot and humid a good part of the year. A heat index of 105 degrees is about when you鈥檝e hit dangerous levels, when people could really suffer from heatstroke.

We currently have an average of seven days where we get over that heat index for a couple of hours. By mid-century, we鈥檙e going to have 88 of those days 鈥 that鈥檚 more than 10 times as many days....


Q: How can you answer someone who challenges the existence of climate change?

A: We don鈥檛 have many of them in Miami-Dade County.

I鈥檝e felt the change in the heat in the 26 years I鈥檝e been here. It鈥檚 hard to argue that heat can鈥檛 be a risk when you鈥檝e seen people die. It鈥檚 the number one climate- and weather-related killer in the United States.


Read Craig's Full Interview with Jane Gilbert


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Temperatures New Normal is Not Normal.jpg


NOAA's "new normal" climate report is anything but normal

By Jeff Berardelli

May 8, 2021 / 7:11 AM / CBS News

It doesn't take a climate scientist to see the changes that have occurred. In the maps below, using NOAA data, Climate Central illustrates the warmer temperatures the U.S. has experienced. When comparing the latest "normals" to what used to be normal a century ago, the difference is clear 鈥 seen in red from coast to coast...

Some climate scientists, like Michael Mann of Penn State, don't love the system of reporting new normals. As he told The Associated Press, Mann prefers using a constant baseline because updating what is normal for present-day conditions obscures the long-term warming trend and makes the warming due to climate change seem less significant. "Adjusting normal every 10 years perverts the meaning of 'normal' and 'normalizes' away climate change."


US Annual Temperatures 1901-2020 Average Comparison.jpg


US Climate Normals

The U.S. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide information about typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States. Normals act both as a ruler to compare today鈥檚 weather and tomorrow鈥檚 forecast, and as a predictor of conditions in the near future. The official normals are calculated for a uniform 30 year period, and consist of annual/seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly averages and statistics of temperature, precipitation, and other climatological variables from almost 15,000 U.S. weather stations.

National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) generates the official U.S. normals every 10 years in keeping with the needs of our user community and the requirements of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and National Weather Service (NWS). The 1991鈥2020 U.S. Climate Normals are the latest in a series of decadal normals first produced in the 1950s. These data allow travelers to pack the right clothes, farmers to plant the best crop varieties, and utilities to plan for seasonal energy usage. Many other important economic decisions that are made beyond the predictive range of standard weather forecasts are either based on or influenced by climate normals.


* https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/about


馃寧


Future of the Human Climate Niche

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.

May 26, 2020


Significance

We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth鈥檚 available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around 鈭13 掳C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.


Abstract

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around 鈭11 掳C to 15 掳C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 掳C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth鈥檚 land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.


Heat Stress (HS) in Earth's Future



2020


2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows


Climate 2020: How Excess Heat is Expressed on Earth


Fastest Warming Cities and States in the U.S.


Urban Heat is Hot

Spend time in a city in summer and you can feel the urban heat rising from the pavement and radiating from buildings. Cities are generally hotter than surrounding rural areas, but even within cities, some residential neighborhoods get dangerously warmer than others just a few miles away.

Within these 鈥渕icro-urban heat islands,鈥 communities can experience heat wave conditions well before officials declare a heat emergency.

Earth-observing satellites and population data map these hot spots, often on projects with NASA. Satellites like the Landsat program have become crucial for pinpointing urban risks so cities can prepare for and respond to extreme heat, a top weather-related killer...


i-1-90761607-satellites-zoom-in-on-cities-hottest.png


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Chart the 'Big Picture': The Keeling Curve


C02 in atmosphere chart-3.png


What a Keeling Curve


Keeling's Curve has been called one of the most important scientific works of the 20th century
* https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/keeling-curve


Oh NOAA, Oh Mauna Loa, Oh Keeling

co2_data_mlo.png



馃寧


Year by Year, Measure and Monitor CO2 in the Atmosphere


馃寧


Changes in carbon dioxide per 1000 years - via Climate Central.jpg
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels the past 1 million years - via Climate Central.jpg


CH4 graph - 1980-2020.JPG


NASA co2-graph-061219.jpg



馃寧



Temperatures New Normal is Not Normal.jpg

US Annual Temperatures 1901-2020 Average Comparison.jpg


Let's look more closely.

Let's look at a recent feature news 'wrap up' from a science reporter for the Associated Press.

Here, look....

Pay attention, recognize the threats, act planet citizens, act ....


Billions projected to suffer nearly unlivable heat in 2070

By Seth Borenstein

May 4, 2020


(AP) 鈥 In just 50 years, 2 billion to 3.5 billion people, mostly the poor who can鈥檛 afford air conditioning, will be living in a climate that historically has been too hot to handle, a new study said.

With every 1.8 degree (1 degree Celsius) increase in global average annual temperature from man-made climate change, about a billion or so people will end up in areas too warm day-in, day-out to be habitable without cooling technology, according to ecologist Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands, co-author of the study.

'How many people will end up at risk depends on how much heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions are reduced and how fast the world population grows.

Under the worst-case scenarios for population growth and for carbon pollution 鈥 which many climate scientists say is looking less likely these days 鈥 the study in Monday鈥檚 journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences predicts about 3.5 billion people will live in extremely hot areas. That鈥檚 a third of the projected 2070 population.


Future of the Human Climate Niche

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.

May 26, 2020


Significance

We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth鈥檚 available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around 鈭13 掳C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.


Abstract

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception.

Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around 鈭11 掳C to 15 掳C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP.

Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate.


GreenPolicy360: Speaking of Climate-induced migration.... it will be an increasingly serious strategic demand...

Climate migration -- https://www.greenpolicy360.net/w/Climate_migration


143 Million People May Soon Become Climate Migrants

Climate change will drive human migration more than other events, a new report warns. But the worst impacts can be avoided.


National Geographic / World Bank / March 2018


Climate change will transform more than 143 million people into 鈥渃limate migrants鈥 (#ClimateMigration) escaping crop failure, water scarcity, and sea-level rise, a new World Bank report concludes.

Most of this population shift will take place in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America鈥攖hree 鈥渉ot spots鈥 that represent 55 percent of the developing world鈥檚 populations.


... One third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 掳C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth鈥檚 land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.


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