Heatwaves are melting the Arctic -- Why?

February 11, 2017 via CS Monitor — Records are shattering left and right across the Arctic, much like the ever-dwindling sea ice that once covered the entire Arctic Ocean.

First, the facts. January sea ice area has never been so small. In November, the coverage fell short of average by an area the size of the eastern half of the United States. Northeast Greenland had its warmest February day ever (by almost four degrees). The current heat wave brought temperatures near the North Pole to 50 degrees above average...

“We’re still trying to figure out what is happening here,” Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist with the Colorado-based Snow and Ice Data Center that compiles and reports the history of Arctic ice conditions.

“The ridiculously warm temperatures in the Arctic during October and November this year are off the charts over our 68 years of measurements,” Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Rutgers University...

Everyone agrees that "something is very, very wrong with the Arctic climate"...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4Lj3gcWIAE6dqF.jpg

Between 1980 and 2016 the amount of summer ice in cubic kilometers has decreased by an estimated 72 percent...

Impacts of a warming Arctic / NASA 'Cryosphere' Science

Arctic 2.0: What happens after all the ice goes?

January 19, 2017

Arctic Sea Ice, Record Low

Northern Routes Open as Ice Retreats

Russia pushes into the Arctic

Exxon Mobil could tap huge Arctic assets if US - Russian relations thaw

Former Exxon CEO and new US Sec of State Rex Tillerson meets with Russian President Putin

during 2012 negotiations to move forward with joint oil/gas ventures described as historic

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February 2017

February 1, 2017 -- Rex Tillerson Is Confirmed as Secretary of State Amid Record Opposition

ExxonMobil CEO closer to confirmation as US Secretary of State

Ex-Chief of ExxonMobil Testifies Before US Congress

President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said he believes the risks of climate change "could be serious enough that action should be taken,” but he did not elaborate on what that action should be.

Tillerson testified that he formed his views “over about 20 years as an engineer and a scientist, understanding the evolution of the science.” Ultimately, he said, he concluded that increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere are having an effect on the earth’s climate. But he added, “Our ability to predict that effect is very limited,” and precisely what actions nations should take “seems to be the largest area of debate existing in the public discourse.”

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Geopolitics in the Arctic

Russia and the United States are moving with force to claim fossil fuel exploration and production rights

Canada, China, Norway and additional countries are look to join into the Arctic resource exploration

A 'gas/oil' resource rush is imminent despite inherent dangers and impacts on global climate

New definitions of national and global security continue to be critically needed.

https://fas.org/irp/congress/2009_hr/arctic.pdf

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/56408/Arctic_Oil_Gas_25_of_Worlds_Reserves_Beneath_Arctic_Seabed

A preliminary assessment by the US Geological Survey suggests the Arctic seabed may hold as much as 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves.

By one USGS reported estimate, 400 billion barrels of oil might lie beneath the Arctic seabed.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0731/p01s01-woeu.html

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059940271

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-russia-vladimir-putin-norway-nato-clear-policy-arctic-bases-submarines-military-a7453581.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/exxon-mobil-could-tap-huge-arctic-assets-if-us-russian-relations-thaw.html

A Final Presidential Decision Re: Arctic Oil/Gas

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-19/obama-said-to-use-1953-law-to-block-drilling-in-arctic-atlantic

December 19, 2016 / President Barack Obama prepares to leave office and prepares to block the sale of new offshore drilling rights in most of the U.S. Arctic and parts of the Atlantic. The executive order that could indefinitely restrict oil production there, according to people familiar with the decision.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/18/obama-blocks-new-oil-gas-drilling-in-arctic-ocean.html

Arctic Sea Ice at Record Lows / December 2016

http://phys.org/news/2016-12-state-arcticlonger-seasons-thinning-sea.html

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13122016/arctic-melting-climate-change-noaa-science

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89223

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card

Not Good News, Arctic Sea Ice News

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/09/2016-ties-with-2007-for-second-lowest-arctic-sea-ice-minimum/

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--PEakRtPE--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/xyasmhqdqgrzxvvqd3is.gif

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/17/the-north-pole-is-an-insane-36-degrees-warmer-than-normal-as-winter-descends/

First Cruise Ship Crossing the Ice-Free Arctic Passage

- https://www.greenpolicy360.net/w/File:Crystal_Serenity_cruises_2016.png

- https://www.wired.com/2016/03/climate-change-opens-first-luxury-arctic-cruise-route/

- http://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/15687-serenity-departs-for-northwest-passage-trip.html

- http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/crystal-serenity-cruise-ulukhaktok-1.3736984 Ulukhaktok

- http://www.ktva.com/shows/frontiers/episode-74-crystal-serenitys-historic-voyage-951/ Arrival (September 16, 2016) in New York City ...

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-shipping-arctic-idUSKCN12A14B

The beginning of cruise ships plying the formerly isolated, ice-bound region... prompting calls for a clamp-down to prevent Titanic-style accidents and the pollution of fragile eco-systems resulting from accidents -- and new gas/oil production.

Arctic nations begin to consider limiting the size of vessels and banning the use of heavy fuel oil in the region after first luxury cruise ship, Crystal Serenity, sailed through the Arctic from Alaska, across Canada's newly navigable Northwest Passage, to New York in the summer of 2016.

Next up, commercial shipping traffic, container ships ...

- http://container-news.com/arctic-ocean-shipping-routes-open-months/

Shipping industry report:

Sea-ice is in a committed, long-term decline as the polar north warms.

This year looks on course to be the second lowest in the satellite record. Researchers do not see this trend being reversed anytime soon.

“If we experience a 2-degree increase in global temperatures, we will get close to an Arctic that is effectively ice-free for part of the year; that’s less than a million sq km of ice cover,” said Reading University's Dr. Ed Hawkins.

“So, even if future emissions are consistent with the Paris agreement, it will of course mean shipping routes will be more open. Not every year, but more regularly than they are now.”

“Open water vessels won’t be hugging the Russian coast quite so much, and ice-strengthened ships will be going right over the pole,” he told BBC News.

Saving time

The incentives are clear: if vessels can transit the Arctic, they will shave many days off their journey times between the Pacific and North Atlantic ports, and save fuel.

In addition, by plotting a more central course, they can avoid the fees they would otherwise be charged for going through Siberian waters.

The team has been looking at how the opportunities might evolve in the decades ahead.

The group used five prominent climate computer models and essentially trained them to better reflect the distribution of Arctic sea-ice as seen in current observations.

They then ran those models forward through the century under different emissions scenarios, to gauge where and how frequently shipping routes would become navigable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route (Russia)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage (Canada)

2015

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sanctions-russia-arctic-shipping-idUSKBN0KV17520150122

2014/2013

- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-arctic-shipping-idUSBRE92718420130308

2012/2011

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/06/us-russia-political-tensions-arctic

- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-arctic-ice-supertankers

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Geo-political Issues (@GreenPolicy's associated site, Strategic Demands)

http://strategicdemands.com/new-definitions-of-security/