File:Nuclear-War-A-Scenario-272x300.jpg: Difference between revisions

Nuclear War: A Scenario

"There is only one scenario other than an asteroid strike that could end the world as we know it in a matter of hours: nuclear war. And one of the triggers for that war would be a nuclear missile inbound toward the United States."

• https://www.amazon.com/Nuclear-War-Scenario-Annie-Jacobsen/dp/0593476093/

• https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/748264/nuclear-war-by-annie-jacobsen/

Publisher: Dutton / Penguin-Random House

Language: English

Hardcover: 400 pages

ISBN-10: 0593476093

ISBN-13: 978-0593476093

Item Weight: 1.3 pounds

Dimensions: 6.2 x 1.24 x 9.27 inches

Reviews (2024):

J. Terrell

5.0 out of 5 stars Annie Jacobsen's Nuclear War Delivers a Heart-Pounding Journey into the Abyss of Nuclear Armageddon

Reviewed in the United States on April 30, 2024

A minute-by-minute account of a potential general nuclear war scenario, Annie Jacobsen's Nuclear War is one of the most dread-inducing and heart-pounding reading experiences I've ever had.

Beginning with the annihilation of the Washington D.C. by means of a 1-megaton nuclear warhead, Nuclear War rewinds the clock a full 24 minutes to the moment North Korea unexpectedly launches an intercontinental ballistic missile with trajectory aimed for somewhere in the United States. What follows is an account of "speculative narrative nonfiction" or "fictional nonfiction" as author Annie Jacobsen uses that postulated scenario to document the interplay between all of the various processes and policies that go into effect when the U.S. is under threat of nuclear attack—a scenario that leads, almost by accident, to full-bore nuclear exchange with Russia in a little over an hour.

The full breadth of Nuclear War... unfolds over just 72 minutes—from the first missile launch to the end of human civilization. Seem unrealistic? Well, in this account that unfolds in real time, Jacobsen's shows how it's not only plausible, it's possible. Based on recently declassified government reports and studies, reading Nuclear War is like having the veil of "assumed safety" torn from your eyes—it's being unplugged from the Matrix and realizing we're all just a hair trigger away from Armageddon because of the insatiable greed and madness that fueled the proliferation of "bigger and better" nuclear weapons in the wake of World War II and the Cold War.

Intercutting between various government agencies, military personnel, public officials, submarines, satellites, silos, and ground zero impact zones, Nuclear War demands to be read in as few sittings as possible. The cascading and escalating effects of the world's Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) policies coupled with faulty, inconsistent deterrent technology and zero-sum game assumptions about human nature mean the 72 minutes Nuclear War depicts unfold with inevitable grimness typically reserved for the likes of horror novelists.

And in the final section of Nuclear War, Jacobsen reveals what a post-nuclear war Earth would actually look like and, in the process, shoots down any post-apocalyptic or prepper fantasies one might have about "surviving" the end of the world.

So, why read Nuclear War? For one, it's a morbidly fascinating depiction of one of the most likely endgame scenarios for human civilization. It also works as one of the most effective nuclear disarmament arguments you're likely to ever read and a fierce warning against the electing of morally incongruous, hot-headed, and incompetent political leaders. Nuclear War is disturbingly prescient, paced liked a thriller, and will stay with you for a long, long time.

JML

5.0 out of 5 stars One of the Best Books Ever

Reviewed in the United States on June 6, 2024

It's hard to express how good Nuclear War: A Scenario is, but let's start with Jacobsen herself: articulate, deeply informed, plausible. I've watched several podcasts with her discussing the book's contents, and she's totally convincing. Too bad for us: that angelic voice telling you you're doomed.

(Ed: Podcasts/Video)

• https://anniejacobsen.com/lex-fridman-podcast-annie-jacobsen-lex-fridman-3-hours/

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXgGR8KxFao

• https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/annie-jacobsen-nuclear-war/id1589146361?i=1000654502467

• https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/467-annie-jacobsen-what-the-threat-of-nuclear-war/id1474687988

• https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/120-annie-jacobsen-nuclear-armageddon-in-2024/id1492492083?i=1000661514365

• https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/annie-jacobsens-nuclear-doomsday-scenario/id101215657?i=1000661509000

• https://www.audible.com/podcast/120-Annie-Jacobsen-Nuclear-Armageddon-in-2024/B0D928WX5K

C. Brown

5.0 out of 5 stars A Gripping Chronicle of Unimaginable Catastrophe

Reviewed in the United States on April 12, 2024

Annie Jacobsen's "Nuclear War" achieves a rare feat in literary journalism by providing a near-minute-by-minute account of a hypothetical nuclear launch by North Korea against the United States. This scenario, expertly detailed by Jacobsen, captures the terrifying immediacy and catastrophic aftermath of such an event, immersing the reader in a vividly realistic, spine-chilling, and instructive narrative.

Jacobsen’s ability to describe complex military and technological procedures in an accessible way is particularly noteworthy. She sketches out the tense moments leading up to the launch, the frantic government responses, and the tragic human consequences with precision and depth, making the scenario feel alarmingly plausible.

The description of the aftermath is harrowing, detailing the environmental, political, and human toll with unflinching clarity. Jacobsen does not shy away from the grim realities of nuclear warfare, instead she lays them bare, forcing the reader to confront the potential real-world consequences of current nuclear strategies and the urgent need for diplomacy and disarmament.

This book is a masterclass in tension and realism, providing an essential perspective on the horrors of nuclear war. Jacobsen’s meticulous attention to detail and her compelling narrative style ensure that the subject matter's gravity is understood and felt. This is not just a book but a powerful call to awareness and action in the face of one of humanity's gravest threats.

"Nuclear War" is a must-read, not only for its educational value but also for its capacity to engage and challenge its audience.

Soso

4.0 out of 5 stars Must read despite the flaws

Reviewed in the United States on May 5, 2024

Tom Clancy once said, "The difference between fiction and reality? Fiction has to make sense."

This book shows the multi trillion dollar US nuclear war machine in action in what it presents as a plausible scenario for a nuclear war.

Read this book for its very well researched portrayal of the huge US nuclear war establishment, what it is, the logic behind it, and how it is likely to operate in a nuclear crisis. Very few people in the US are aware of the immense scale of America's preparation for nuclear war. This book will bring much of that to life.

The book is a revelation, presenting information in a non-political way that every voter should know. It does an outstanding job of credibly conveying how the many organizations and technologies in the US nuclear complex would interact and ratchet forward with unstoppable pseudo-logic in a war that kills hundreds of millions of people in less than two hours.

The details of how the US's vast nuclear military organizations, which already exist and practice their work every day, will function in a crisis make it clear that the death of hundreds of millions is neither fantasy nor exaggeration. Hundreds of millions of Americans will indeed be killed in a general nuclear war. If anything, the death of hundreds of millions is simply a base case on the way to killing billions of people around the world, including billions of bystanders.

But the fictional scenario the author employs to show the nuclear establishment in action does not make sense at almost all key junctures. Even allowing for the fog of war and the possibility that something as catastrophic as general nuclear war might result from a chain of unlikely accidents, the inexplicable implausibility of how the plot is written gives a sense of unreality to the book.

That's a bad thing because the accuracy, truth, and real consequences of how this book presents US nuclear war plans should not be tainted by any sense of unreality arising from readers considering the plot and thinking "Oh, that's absurd, it could never happen that way."

So read the book to understand what the US has already built and what those trillion dollar organizations will do in a nuclear crisis, while cutting the author some slack for an implausible plot. The author knows her stuff when it comes to the US weapons complex but she's no Tom Clancy. That's OK as the rest of the book delivers as it should.

I've been studying nuclear matters for many years and even for me there were many revelations in this book. Some of them, like the news that there were four nuclear explosions during the Cuban Missile Crisis (yes, really, up in space, two from the US and two from the USSR...) were annoyingly buried in the notes at the end of the book. But despite such flaws this book is full of wake up calls and fresh insights.

After reading this book, readers will know down to the marrow of their bones three key truths about the reality of nuclear war:

1. The scale of destruction. Some people tell themselves nukes aren't the problem they were because now there are fewer of them, they are smaller, and what's out of mind is not a threat. Not so. There are thousands of nukes on both sides on hair trigger alert, ready to launch, and a single one of them can annihilate an entire city, as shown in the opening sequence. A fraction of the nukes on either side can kill hundreds of millions of people. They're real and they're ready for action.

2. The speed of action. There is almost no time to deliberate how to de-escalate a war, given how the nuclear establishments have been designed for speed of action. It only takes 15 minutes from the time an order is given in Washington or Moscow for the missile subs of either side to have lifted to launch depth and to have launched all their missiles. With possibly only a few minutes of flight time for a sub-launched missile, not hours, the leaders of either side will have only a few minutes to make the decision of how many millions of people they will kill in their response, those decisions taken from complicated menus of options that usually US presidents will see for only the first time in the heat of a crisis.

3. The unstoppable decisions. There is no stopping a missile once launched, no self-destruct option from the launching side, and no realistic hope to defend. The hundreds of billions that have been spent on missile defense systems have been wasted on pork projects that have proven to be total failures.

T. Haugh

5.0 out of 5 stars Scared the Bejeezus Out of Me

Reviewed in the United States on June 12, 2024

My teenaged years covered most of the 1980’s. Exacerbated by my love of science fiction and post-apocalyptic fiction, I was obsessed by the idea of nuclear war. I still think that the final half hour of the movie War Games (besides being now a nostalgic snapshot of early home computer technology) is still some of the scariest moments ever put to film. From duck-and-cover-drills to the television event that was The Day After, fear of nuclear war was everywhere. Then, came the end of the Cold War and a shrinking of nuclear arsenals. Nuclear war seemed to fade from our collective consciousness. Now, in this excellent, frightening book, Ms. Jacobsen reminds us of how easily nuclear war could start and destroy the world.

In this book, Ms. Jacobson gives us a minute-by-minute scenario where North Korea launches a single nuclear missile targeting Washington DC, followed by a sub-launched missile targeting a nuclear power plant in Southern California. Within 24 minutes after launch, these 2 missiles lead to a cascading sequence of quick decisions and escalating events that are irreparable. In less than an hour, the entire world is engulfed in destruction. It is absolutely chilling because it could so easily happen.

Along the way, Ms. Jacobsen describes the history of the development of our nuclear arsenal and the way it could potentially be used. She shows how the president became the sole decision-maker on the use of our nuclear weapons but how choices are actually limited by the necessities of the military and the tiny timeframe in which to make decisions. She discusses the actual war games and scenarios that have been played out in all seriousness by our military and its scientists and the sad fact is that none of these scenarios lead to anything other than total obliteration.

Due to my interest in the subject, I was familiar with some of what Ms. Jacobson describes here, though to have it play out in real time is nerve-wracking. There were some things with which I was not familiar, however; in particular, I did not realize how shoddy Russia’s early warning system is. (Knowing that there are Russian spies living near silos to visually report a launch seems ridiculously low-tech.) I also admit that one major question I had was how, despite this, Russia was not aware of North Korea’s launch in a similar time frame to the U.S. How could they not know the launch was from there? How could they only become aware something was happening when we launched? It seems a bit beyond belief.

Anyway, I have rarely come across such a frightening read. The description of what happens once the bombs start to hit is sickening. Though I am an optimist who believes some form of human life will hang on in the wilds of New Zealand or Antarctica, surviving the decade of darkness and rebuilding some form of human culture is not something in which I would want to participate. Like Dr. Falken in War Games, I live close to a primary target: “a millisecond of brilliant light and we’re vaporized”. God willing, we’ll find a way past this deadly era. If a lot of people read this top-notch book, perhaps we’ll have a better chance.

Paige

5.0 out of 5 stars This book should be mandatory reading for all

Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2024

This book is so well written that I set aside my new Jack Carr novel and read this instead. Full of research, facts, quotes, while presenting a gripping fictional story. I could not put this book down. When you read that the US President and his staff have less than 7 minutes to decide on, and activate, a course of action, then think about our current and past Presidents, you realize how vulnerable and naive we are as a nation. There are politicians who believe that nuclear war is survivable! A must read book for all voters.

E.Garrity

5.0 out of 5 stars Another weapon, another purpose; this one, Nuclear Weapons, developed for mass destruction.

Reviewed in the United States on May 3, 2024

There are Media Easter Eggs sprinkled throughout her books, delivered by the persons she interviewed and casted by her authorship, especially from those individuals who felt regrets towards the end of their lives.

From page 4 in the Kindle version of the book:

"In 2008, in his late eighties, a few years before he died, Rubel [John H. Rubel was an Assistant Director (to Herbert York) of Defense Research and Engineering in the Pentagon in 1959.] revealed this information in a short memoir. As Rubel prepared for his own death, he summoned the courage to express a long-repressed truth. That he felt remorse for having participated in such a “heart of darkness” plan. For saying nothing for so many decades after the fact. What he was part of, Rubel wrote, was a plan for 'mass extermination.' His words."

In that same memoir ("DOOMSDAY DELAYED - USAF Strategic Weapons Doctrine and SIOP-62, 1959-1962 - Two Cautionary Tales"), written on the third page, is the following:

"In 1945 von Karman headed a committee charged with finding out everything it could about German aeronautical developments during WWII. In 1946 the Air Force, still under the Army, set up the RAND (Research AND Development), think-tank in Santa Monica, California, a multidisciplinary group of engineers, scientists, economists, psychologists and others to think about war in general and new weapons in particular.

RAND quickly proposed a death-ray project, which the Air Force approved.

Was this mention of a "death-ray project" a foreboding of the weapon now used to produce Anomalous Health Incidents (Alternatively known as "Havana Syndrome")?

The books written by Annie Jacobsen are primarily about technology conceived and created for defense and warfare, but ultimately for power and control. Technology harnessed for such purposes. A paradox we have not been able to escape. It seems an historical rule that if a technology can be used as a weapon, it will be used as a weapon.

From page 299 in the Kindle version of the book: "Charles H. Townes (1915–2015), who won the Nobel Prize in 1964, left a profound impact on my thinking (which I write about in Phenomena). The concept of dual use technology—science that can be used to help or to harm—is a paradox. Townes’s invention, the laser, has done so much to benefit mankind, from laser surgery to laser printers, but the Pentagon’s classified laser weapons program is fostering a new kind of arms race."

From page 300 in the Kindle version of the book: "Marvin L. “Murph” Goldberger (1922–2014), founder of the Jason advisory panel, designed many weapons systems for the Pentagon. He shared with me his vast knowledge about sensor technology and its role in command and control. He also shared a regret. Goldberger told me he wished he’d spent more time doing science for science’s sake and not doing science for war. “At the end of your life you think about these things,” he said."

This is another interesting book by Annie Jacobson, the sixth I've read thus far, having read them in the following order of completion: 1.) "Operation Paperclip" on Sep 6, 2023, 2.) "The Pentagon's Brain, An Uncensored History of DARPA" on October 28, 2023, 3.) "Phenomena" on Dec 16, 2023, 4.) "Area 51" on Feb 26, 2024, 5.) "First Platoon" on Mar 25, 2024, and 6.) "Nuclear War: A Scenario" on May 2, 2024.

Everyone of these books mention or allude to the use of Electromagnetic (EM) waves as a means to obtain intelligence, create more weapon systems, or to deceive. There are references to the use of EM-based technologies throughout her books, such as in the "55 Minute" chapter of this book, describing the detonation of a "Super-EMP weapon" and the conception of a deception device discussed on page 296 in the Kindle version of "First Platoon - A STORY OF MODERN WAR IN THE AGE OF IDENTITY DOMINANCE":

"The Pentagon aims to have its hyper-enabled operators carry a device that has “the ability to project images that are not real but seem real, and have the ability to develop personalized message campaigns for the image to project.” In other words, three-dimensional deepfakes, to trick the enemy—in real time."

W. Miller

5.0 out of 5 stars A cautionary tale

Reviewed in the United States on April 6, 2024

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, global nuclear war has receded from the concerns of most people. However, the forbidden subject has reemerged with the Ukrainian-Russian war and nuclear-armed rogue states becoming a real threat. An award-winning journalist for the Los Angeles Times, Annie Jacobsen has written a convincing scenario for a worldwide nuclear war.

A scenario is an outline of predicted events. In a military scenario, the actors are commanding officers, military units, and civilian authorities. I wrote a scenario for how my army command would be relocated to Europe during the war with the Soviet Union. It is a work of fiction, but the courses of action are as realistic as possible. Scenarios in this case act as a guide for implementing policy.

In Jacobsen’s book, the scenario is this: A rogue nation, North Korea, and its leader, Kim Il Un, launch three ballistic missiles at the United States: The Pentagon, a nuclear power plant in California, and a third over the United States to produce an overwhelming Electro-Magnetic Pulse to wipe out America’s power grid. The government of the United States had no warning and, at this time, had no inkling of the impending attack. Through a series of miscalculations, Russia thinks the United States is attacking because the retaliatory strike of Minutemen missiles will cross over Russian territories. In the meantime, the President has around fifteen minutes to decide whether to authorize a counterstrike. He, at the last second, decides on a proper response. He’s whisked away to an underground bunker outside of the District of Columbia. Before he gets to the bunker, Marine Helicopter One crashes. Now, the top echelon of civilians must agree on a successor. While this happens a second hydrogen bomb-equipped missile hits the Canyon Diablo Nuclear Power Plant in California. Now, the Russians seeing the counterstrike against North Korea convince themselves that they are under attack and not waiting for a response from Washington, launch a retaliatory attack with Russia’s entire arsenal of bombs. Predictively, the Acting President retaliates with all the United States’ arsenal.

Two things I came away with were: the decisions being made with the idea that there may only be thirty minutes to decide the fate of mankind. Only one man, the President of the United States and the President of Russia will be carrying the burden of deciding the fate of mankind. The other point is that another man, Kim Il Un, can start the fuse being lit without a word of consultation from any other leader. Kim Il Un has the Hwasong-17 ICBM, he has most likely a one-megaton hydrogen bomb, and Un has an elaborate underground bunker which is on a par with or better than what the US or Russia has. Un has the disposition of doing things alone and has no allies to consult with.

The book's final section describes what a full-blown nuclear attack would be like. One thousand warheads were directed at every conceivable target in the United States. Hundreds of millions in the United States would die an extremely painful death. Russia, in Europe, and in close allied countries such as South Korea and Japan would face a similar fate. China, even if it didn’t get drawn into the war, would suffer hundreds of millions of casualties due to radioactive fallout.

The book is a quick read. She did a lot of research on this project and used heretofore highly classified documents and interviews with former department heads in several defense agencies. It doesn’t call for any recommendations. I recommend this book to anyone concerned with the war talk going around nowadays.

DES

5.0 out of 5 stars It May Be Non-Fiction, But This Book Will Scare You Into Sleepless Nights

Reviewed in the United States on April 30, 2024

Because I don’t read fiction, there has never been a book that scared me... until now. “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by Annie Jacobsen illustrates how, in less than an hour, a nuclear launch can lead to the distraction of our planet with a few simple errors and overreactions.

Jacobsen spent more than a decade interviewing dozens of experts while mastering the voluminous literature on the subject, some of which had only recently been declassified.

The book describes a mass extinction event that begins with an imaginary narrative that begins with North Korea launching a missile against the United States. The threat is real as nine governments possess nuclear weapons. For many of them, the decision to kill millions of people in an instant rests with one man, whether Kim, Putin, or the president of the United States.

Beginning with the historical context of atomic weapons development, Jacobsen highlights the evolution of nuclear arsenals and the policy frameworks guiding their potential use. She then delves into a hypothetical scenario triggered by North Korea's missile launch, illustrating the rapid escalation and devastation that ensue. With nine nuclear-armed nations and the power to unleash destruction resting in the hands of a few individuals, the book underscores the ever-present threat of annihilation. Key highlights include the mechanics of nuclear weaponry, the harrowing realities of nuclear winter, and the psychological toll of decision-making in a time-critical environment. Ultimately, the book serves as a sobering reminder of the madness inherent in nuclear warfare and the urgent imperative for global disarmament.

Among the key points:

HISTORICAL CONTEXT – The book includes information on the development of nuclear policy, including concepts like Launch on Warning and Hair-Trigger Alert, which underscore the precariousness of nuclear deterrence.

TECHNOLOGICAL REALITIES – Jacobsen shares insights into the mechanics of nuclear weapons, from thermonuclear bombs to intercontinental ballistic missiles, highlighting the sheer destructive power and complexity involved.

OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES - The book explores the intricacies of defense systems and decision-making processes, revealing the daunting task of mitigating the effects of a nuclear attack and the pressures leaders face under extreme time constraints.

HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES – There are vivid descriptions that depict the unimaginable horrors of nuclear war, from immediate casualties to long-term environmental and health catastrophes, emphasizing the incomprehensible suffering inflicted on humanity.

STRATEGIC VULNERABILITIES - The book explores vulnerabilities in defense systems, such as the limited number of interceptor missiles available to defend against incoming nuclear warheads, revealing the potential inadequacy of current defense strategies.

"Nuclear War: A Scenario" drives home the stark reality that the use of nuclear weapons is inherently irrational and catastrophic. Jacobsen underscores the urgent imperative for global nuclear disarmament to prevent the unfathomable devastation depicted in the book from becoming a terrifying reality.

Read this book before bed, and you won’t sleep well.

  __________________________________________

More on the Present Danger of Nuclear War

Scan Strategic Demands / StratDem

Nuclear Weapons / Command & Control

• https://strategicdemands.com/?s=nuclear+weapons

• https://strategicdemands.com/?s=hair+trigger

Dan Ellsberg / Before the 'Pentagon Papers' as a Nuclear War Planner

• https://strategicdemands.com/?s=daniel+ellsberg

Nuclear War / Nuclear 'Cold War' Getting Hotter

• https://strategicdemands.com/?s=nuclear+war">https://strategicdemands.com/?s=nuclear+war

• https://strategicdemands.com/nuclear-issues-cold-war-2-0/