A Day with Al Gore

At the ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit

March 1, 2016

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http://www.arpae-summit.com/

The Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy "advances high-potential, high-impact energy technologies that are too early for private-sector investment. ARPA-E awardees are unique because they are developing entirely new ways to generate, store, and use energy."

http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=news-item/arpa-e-projects-receive-more-125-billion-private-follow-funding-transformational-energy --- ARPA-E Intro Video (2014)

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Steve Clemons & Al Gore

GreenPolicy friend Steve Clemons conducts a wide-ranging interview and discussion with the environmental activist and former US vice president, Al Gore

Following are quotes from Tweets by Adam Siegel @A_Siegell sent live on location from the ARPA-e conference as Steve interviews and Al Gore answers...

• .@algore We have $22T in stranded assets in fossil fuels. #arpae16 @ARPA #Divest #KeepitintheGround

• Economic calculations ignore externalities: negative (pollution) AND positive .@algore @arpa #ARPAE16

• Last 18 months, fossil fuel assets have lost $100T in value .@algore @arpa #arpae16

• The $22T in subprime assets something like 'Big Short' -- divestment has #climate and #financial imperative. .@algore @arpa #arpae16

• .@algore: @ARPAE has proven its value. #ARPAE16

• Article on @algore's 'investment genius' cited on stage #ARPAE16. www.theatlantic.com/... @ARPAE

• .@algore: "@PaulPolman (@Unilever) one of the most innovative Corporate leaders in the world". #ARPAE16 @ARPAE

• "Job 1 is best return for our clients" even while seeking to advance positives. .@algore #ARPAE16 @ARPAE

• "When you can do both [financial & social return], you put pressure on others to pay attention" .@algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16 #investment

• Core question in #investment: Do you have a shadow price on #carbon? .@algore #ARPAE16 @ARPAE #ActOnClimate #Climate

• Carbon is indicator of inefficiency -- and thus shadow price good guidepost for investing. .@algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16

• We are absolutely, absolutely at an inflection point (re renewables, #solar, #pv, etc). .@algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16

• .#Solar now at inflection point of #grid parity: #pv prices going down 10%/year for decades. .@algore @ARPAE No sign of it stopping. #ARPAE16

• .@SCClemons to .@algore: are we done, do we have every thing for #climate/#energy revolution? @ARPAE #ARPAE16 #ActOnClimate #Climate

• We have the momentum, but it matters how fast we #ActOnClimate. .@algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16 #Climate

• Those trying us to prevent moves to #ActOnClimate are spending $1B/year on #tobacco-like disinformation. .@algore

• As a byproduct of making money, creating jobs, ... we can save the future of humanity. .@algore @ARPAE #ActOnClimate #Climate #ARPAE16

• We, a long time ago, woke up that we can't use Potomac or Thames River as a sewer. .@algore @ARPAE #ActOnClimate #ARPAE16

• We can't treat atmosphere as a sewer any longer. .@algore @ARPAE #ARPA16 #ActOnClimate

• .@SCClemons: Do you watch @GOP debates? Only Kasich has anything near rational to say on #climate. #ARPAE16 .@algore @ARPAE

• Your advice to environmental orgs? @SCClemons to @algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16: Price on #carbon or #KeepItIntheGround? Response: All Of The Above

• How do you grade @BARACKOBAMA: @SCClemons to @algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16. First 3 months of 1st term, started well and then not really satisfied

• Since 2d inauguration speech, @BarackObama has been outstanding on #Climate. @algore @ARPAE #ARPAE16 #ActOnClimate @POTUS

• We are lucky to have @BarackObama as @POTUS. @algore #ARPAE16 @ARPAE

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More Reading

Background: DARPA, the ARPANET and Senator Gore

Re: The origins of the Internet and government's role

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET

... In 1983, TCP/IP protocols replaced NCP as the ARPANET's principal protocol, and the ARPANET then became one subnet of the early Internet.

The original IMPs and TIPs were phased out as the ARPANET was shut down after the introduction of the NSFNet, but some IMPs remained in service as late as July 1990.

"The ARPANET Completion Report, jointly published by BBN and ARPA, concludes that: ... it is somewhat fitting to end on the note that the ARPANET program has had a strong and direct feedback into the support and strength of computer science, from which the network, itself, sprang.

In the wake of ARPANET being formally decommissioned on 28 February 1990, Vinton Cerf wrote the following lamentation, entitled "Requiem of the ARPANET":

It was the first, and being first, was best,

but now we lay it down to ever rest.

Now pause with me a moment, shed some tears.

For auld lang syne, for love, for years and years

of faithful service, duty done, I weep.

Lay down thy packet, now, O friend, and sleep.

- Vinton Cerf

Senator Albert Gore, Jr. began to craft the High Performance Computing and Communication Act of 1991 (commonly referred to as "The Gore Bill") after hearing the 1988 report toward a National Research Network submitted to Congress by a group chaired by Leonard Kleinrock, professor of computer science at UCLA. The bill was passed on 9 December 1991 and led to the National Information Infrastructure (NII) which Al Gore called the "information superhighway"...

Siterunner:

The above story of the origins of the Internet carries a deep lesson. The Wiki view is simple: 'The Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET) was an early packet switching network and the first network to implement the protocol suite TCP/IP. Both technologies became the technical foundation of the Internet. ARPANET was initially funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) of the United States...'

The larger tale has more to it. It is about securing the nation, it is about the government acting in what is seen as the national interest. Defense and protection of command-and-control systems led initial communication network and fiber optic research. The outcome of this research and work led to the knowledge base and building of what became the Internet and Internet economy.

Similarly, across a wide spectrum, many government-funded science projects, not unlike the research that led to the packet switching Internet, have led to transformative discoveries and shifts to benefit national interests. Now is the time for transformation again. It is in the national interest to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Like the government's ARPANET research, today's energy science ARPA-E funding has potential to transform the energy industry.

The potential benefits can be seen as 'positive externalities' and touch all elements of domestic/foreign policy, offering ways and means to cut constant and escalating war spending to secure gas/oil supplies. As renewable energy and attendant alternative ecosystems come on line, the possibilities increase for reducing the risks, costs and threats of global climate change. The past two centuries of struggle and war for gas/oil and spiking carbon emissions and environmental degradation and 'negative externalities' that effect the future of communities and national/global security can be turned in a positive and sustainable direction.

Shifting from fossil fuels to renewables will deliver transformative eco-nomics. As we look out at the environmental security horizon, this strategic demand is the great challenge of the 21st century.

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Citigroup: On the Question of Extent (and Downside Risk) of 'Stranded (Carbon) Assets'

According to Citigroup analysts: $US100 trillion of potential stranded assets in the fossil fuel industry

"...We estimate that the total value of stranded assets could be over $US100 trillion based on current market prices,” Citigroup notes in their report. And coal bears the brunt, accounting for more than half the value of stranded assets, even in the unlikely event that carbon capture and storage becomes a viable technology."

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Race to Innovate

Competing with Elon Musk

Breakthrough in next generation of storage batteries could transform the US electrical grid within five to 10 years, says research agency, Arpa-E

Keeping in mind 'Open Source' innovation that Elon Musk and multiple next-generation entrepreneurs are encouraging for rapid eco-nomic extension, reach and engagement

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US ARPA-E Review and Budget Request

A View of Government's role in 'Tranformational' and Renewable Energy

http://arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/default/files/ARPA-E%20FY17%20Budget%20Request.pdf

Advanced Research Projects Agency/ARPA -- Forward-Thinking and -Acting

Overview

As defined by its authorization under the America COMPETES Act, the Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E) catalyzes transformational energy technologies to enhance the economic and energy security of the United States. ARPA-E funds high-potential, high-impact energy projects that are too early for private sector investment but could significantly advance the ways we generate, store, distribute and use energy.

ARPA-E plays a unique role in DOE’s research and development R&D organization, complementing and expanding the impact of DOE’s basic science and applied energy programs.

ARPA-E focuses on energy technologies that can be meaningfully advanced with a targeted investment over a defined period of time. ARPA-E’s rigorous program design, close coordination with other DOE offices and federal agencies, competitive project selection process, and hands-on engagement, ensure thoughtful expenditures while empowering America’s energy researchers with funding, technical assistance, and market awareness.

ARPA-E was established by the America COMPETES Act of 2007 following a recommendation by the National Academies in the Rising above the Gathering Storm report.

As of December 2015, ARPA-E has funded over 450 projects with approximately $1.3 billion through 29 focused programs and open funding solicitations.

Highlights and Major Changes in the FY 2017 Budget Request

Under the Budget Request for FY 2017, ARPA-E expects to release funding opportunity announcements (FOA) for seven to eight focused technology programs, slightly increase funding for Innovative Development in Energy-Related Applied Sciences (IDEAS) proposals, and potentially run a technology prize competition. In addition, funding will support opportunities for qualification and field testing, thereby further de-risking these technologies and increasing the likelihood that projects will receive private sector investment.

In keeping with a multi-year cycle for OPEN solicitations (2009, 2012, and 2015), ARPA-E does not anticipate an open solicitation in FY 2017. In FY 2017, ARPA-E will continue its stand-alone Small Business Innovation Research / Small Business Technology Transfer(SBIR/STTR) program to provide additional support to small businesses beyond the significant number of awards that go to small businesses via ARPA-E’s standard FOA process.

In addition to the FY 2017 Budget Request, an authorization proposal of $150 million in mandatory funding in 2017 as part of a larger, new legislative proposal, the “Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy Trust” program, will be transmitted to Congress. This would provide a total FY 2017 Budget of $500 million. The full authorization proposal would seek $1.85 billion for ARPA-E over 5 years. In addition to the $150 million in FY 2017, this would include $250 million in FY 2018, $350 million in FY 2019, $450 million in FY 2020, and $650 million in FY 2021.

These funds will provide a reliable stream of funding to create a complementary new effort that will expand ARPA-E’s impact.

A significant focus of this expanded effort will be on accelerating technologies that have demonstrated significant early-stage success toward readiness for private-sector investment. Combined with ARPA-E’s annual appropriations, this will result in a total funding level of approximately $1 billion in 2021.

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Fortune magazine - March 1, 2016 report -- For the first time since the program was created, it’s now looking to expand significantly beyond its original mandate to support moonshots. The program is hoping to create a new fund focused on supporting and growing later-stage energy technologies.

That fund, called the ARPA-E Trust, could grow its annual budget over time, until together with the moonshots, the two programs could reach a collective $1 billion by 2021. That’s about three times ARPA-E’s current annual budget ($291 million) for 2016.

The desire to expand the ARPA-E ambition partly comes out of the Paris Climate Conference, where for the first time last December close to 200 countries agreed to set goals to lower greenhouse gas emissions. During the two weeks of meetings, a handful of governments, including the U.S., agreed to attempt to double their budgets for energy research and development. The new plan for the ARPA-E Trust, and the billion-dollar budget, is one way the DOE is trying to pursue this commitment, called the “Mission Innovation” initiative.

The new pursuit puts the ARPA-E program in a unique and possibly unenviable position. The program has long been the poster child of the Department of Energy, with its focus on technology and innovation, its rigorously monitored tracks, its daring mandate, and its modest spending. The program has managed to get bipartisan support...

Many have called for ARPA-E to be expanded over the years. The American Energy Innovation Council, a group made up of business leaders such as Bill Gates, have been requesting that ARPA-E’s annual budget be boosted to $1 billion a year. In fact, when the program was created its own intentions were to hit $1 billion a year at some point.

But due to the impasse in Congress, and some of the politicization of the DOE’s other programs, ARPA-E’s budget has been limited since its inception.

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Al Gore: The Case for Optimism on Climate Change (TED 2016)

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November 2015

Atlantic magazine / James Fallows

The Planet-Saving, Capitalism-Subverting, Surprisingly Lucrative Investment Secrets of Al Gore

The former vice president has led his firm to financial success. But what he really wants to do is create a whole new version of capitalism