Fact Checking a US-initiated Trade War
This week at an event in the Rose Garden of the White House the US president announced a global US policy of trade tariffs the he described as "liberation day" in the United States.
Here at GreenPolicy360 we have decided, as we consider worldwide impacts of this presidential decision, to launch a new webpage -- "Fact Checking a US-Initiated Trade War". The impacts and consequences of what is already being described in news headlines as a Trade War deserves its own page and so here we go...
A US-initiated trade war, an updated 'neo-mercantalism' is a new use for an old policy, a belief expressed by the current president that the presidency of William McKinley in the late 1800s, a time of tariffs and protectionism, was a golden age. (Others called this era of the late 1800s the "Era of the Robber Barons" and a corrupt "Gilded Age".) President Trump's new direction in this sense is an old direction that was abandoned after Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s led to a Great Depression, escalating national conflicts, and World War.
The Republican party under Trump is now returning to nationalistic, protectionist policies from the past. We will see, in actions and responses, how it turns out this time.
One thing can already be said about tariffs of the 21st century. Facts will tell the tale. Large and small there will be costs and benefits, pluses and minuses, pros and cons. As the facts of a Trump-era Trade War come into view, all nations will experience a new world and we will look closely at and beyond Gross National Product/Gross Domestic Product (GNP/GDP) to reveal deeper changes.
On this page we will go 'down a rabbit hole', as the saying goes, and explore the consequences of the Trump tariffs, trade barriers, taxes and threats. The consequences of the Trump Trade War extend far beyond trade and will bring on a reset of how the countries of the world see and deal with the United States ...
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Tariffs give Trump a unilateral power to punish and reward businesses as he sees fit.
Now each country hit by Trump tariffs will have to come before the president and negotiate, or accept a fait accompli, a done deal, or take another more 'multifaceted' approach. All is up for discussion. Across the political spectrum, countries are talking of confronting 'bullying'.
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Associated Press / April 2, 2025
Trump, in a Rose Garden announcement on Wednesday, said he was placing elevated tariff rates on dozens of nations...
Trump’s Misleading Tariff Chart
In his Rose Garden announcement of sweeping new “reciprocal tariffs,” President Donald Trump held aloft a misleading chart that claimed to give a breakdown of the tariffs other countries charge the U.S. and the corresponding tariff that the U.S. will now impose against those countries...
Economists told us that’s not a legitimate way to calculate reciprocal tariffs for countries.
“Those listed numbers are simply not tariffs, but some other made-up measure based on a formulaic trade deficit calculation,” Kimberly Clausing, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told us via email. “In almost every instance, countries’ true trade barriers are far, far lower.”
“This is not a legitimate way to calculate trade barriers, and the vast majority of subject matter experts (I would wager >99% of international economists) would reject this methodology as profoundly flawed.”
Money in Politics
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April 6, 2025
- https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/05/china-just-turned-off-u-s-supplies-of-minerals-critical-for-defense-cleantech/ (A trade war move)
- https://www.axios.com/2025/04/06/trump-tariffs-error-aei (More than a math error)
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April 5, 2025
Economic Impact and Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs
US stock markets have been falling for two days now, wiping out vast sums from investment and retirement portfolios.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has also warned that these tariffs would result in "higher inflation and lower growth."
The Dow Jones was down 5.5% and the S&P 5.97%.
Since Trump declared his "Liberation Day" tariffs, US financial markets have reportedly lost over $6 trillion.
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April 4, 2025
"International trade and investments will suffer and global growth will slow... the last time the world experienced something like this was in the 1930s. Trade wars escalated into armed conflict, and eventually the Second World War. No one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months... but we must be clear-eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world." -- Lawrence Wong, Prime Minister, Singapore
Sampling Reactions
Wall Street Journal
After the mid-week announcement, Wall Street was plunged into a two-day rout that erased $6.6 trillion in stock-market value. Trump on Saturday morning urged Americans to stay the course through what he called an economic revolution.
Barron's
When it comes to tariffs, Donald Trump holds all the cards. The launch of tariffs against virtually every other nation on April 2 finds Trump unleashed. As a second-term president whose party has been reshaped by his movement, he is free to follow his political instincts. And those instincts are leading him, and the world, straight into economic warfare.
China News
Beijing said the U.S. action “seriously undermines China’s legitimate rights and interests” and labeled it “a typical unilateral bullying practice.” With approval from the State Council, China confirmed it will add a 34% tariff to every U.S. import arriving after April 10 at 12:01 a.m.
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April 3, 2025
“I wouldn’t want to be the last country that tries to negotiate a trade deal with Donald Trump. The first to negotiate will win – the last will absolutely lose. I have seen this movie my entire life...” -- Eric Trump
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